Welcome to Loot’s football betting strategy page! Ninety-seven percent of all football bettors lose long term. If you plan to be one of the prosperous 3%, you need to have a plan. When it comes to beating the point spread, NFL betting strategy is that plan. You wouldn’t go to war without a weapon, and sharp football bettors don’t wager on games without knowledge in their arsenal. The articles below were written by expert sports handicappers who will save you a ton of time on the learning curve as they’ve taken the lumps for you. These guys all lost for years before figuring out how to properly handicap NFL games, understand line movement, use public betting percentages to their advantage and more. Football betting is a numbers game. Public perception plays a huge role in the creation of a point spread. The articles below will educate you about the psychology of football betting and increase your winning percentage, which should help YOU to be the one who gets paid each week, not the other way around! Be sure to check out the left menu for more great football betting articles offering tips and advice! Enjoy!
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The Importance of Your Lifestyle – We have all been to a sportsbook and seen the decrepit condition of most of the betting public. Betting has a way of eroding away at a person’s lifestyle. Eating bad food is one thing, but there are certain behaviors that a lot of football bettors possess that can have a direct adverse affect on a bankroll. No one is saying you have to be triathalon-ready, but there are some good lifestyle tips that are simple enough and can save you a lot of money during the NFL season. Click here to read!
Benefits and Drawbacks in Betting a Game Early – In NFL football, we nearly have an entire week to get our bets together. Some bettors like to get an early jump on the action, while others wait until the last minute, as evidenced by the lines at the sportsbook right before game-time on Sunday. In this article, Loot breaks down the pros and cons on pulling the trigger on a bet early in the week. Click here!
Being Realistic – It’s important to have realistic expectations when betting on football. A lot of bettors have it all mixed up and think football betting is an all-out gambling frenzy where we live and die on the results of games where we let it all hang loose. In this piece, Loot breaks down how a methodical and patient approach is really the only way to beat the bookies in football wagering. Click here!
The Affect Media Bias has on NFL Betting – If we watch a lot of coverage on NFL betting, it’s possible that we can fall into a way of thinking that has no place in NFL betting. Click here to read and find out how what the media is worried about and what we need to be concerned with are very different things.
Why You Need to Watch as Many Games as Possible – While this may seem obvious, very few people take it to heart. Sportscenter highlights won’t get it done either. There are MANY variables and facets of the game that can’t be measured by highlights or box scores. One really needs to watch as many games as possible in order to be successful at NFL betting. Loot explains.
Keeping Good Records – We put this article near the top of this page for a reason. It’s a must read! While the title is somewhat boring and many will probably pass it over, it’s an article that will literally increase your winning percentage. Lots of good stuff here!
Money Management and Bankroll Strategy – If you were ever going to read an article on this site, this would rate in the top 5 that we’d hope you’d read! Many bettors, many of which could consistently beat the sperad, have come and gone over the years due to the fact that they couldn’t properly manager their bankroll. Money management is the number two reason that guys flame out. Read this article, learn to be disciplined and increase your chances of getting paid by your bookie!
Betting NFL Teams off Bye Weeks – It’s very common to read game analysis with notation of how rested a team will be since they’re coming off of a bye week. This isn’t really a variable that you can factor into your handicapping though because it’s already been accounted for and the results prove it. The ATS records of teams coming off of bye weeks is likely to surprise you!
What Bookies Want You to Do – Loot points out all of the wagers and situations bookies want to suck you into and advises which bets are actually the best to play. He also gives the heads up on a simple change you can make that will increase your profits prior to even making a bet!
Betting on Teams Struggling Against the Spread – While it’s human nature to want to back a winner, Loot explains that betting on teams who are doing well usually ends up backfiring and that the value ends up being with teams who have recently failed to get the money.
Handicapping Turnovers – How many times have you been sitting there with a betting ticket in your hand anxiously awaiting the completion of a game only to have your team cough up the ball and blow your cover? Then, to make matters worse, the announcer goes on to talk about your team has been excessively coughing up the ball over the past few weeks and low and behold, this wasn’t a stat that you had even thought of handicapping. Loot urges readers to add this much overlooked variable to their handicapping arsenal and gives some stellar examples from the 2012 NFL season that will make your head spin!
The Opposite System – Some NFL handicappers suck so bad they actually consider fading themsleves. Loot talks about “the opposite system” here.
Football Betting Strategy: Handicapping NFL Schedules – A novice football fan sees a list of games on an NFL team’s schedule. A professional football bettor sees opportunity. A team playing in a short week off of a MNF game. Thousands of miles of road travel. Etc. Employ these tactics to increase your chances of collecting from the bookie!
Teasing NFL Favorites – Loot talks strategy on how you can use a 2-team teaser as a weapon to beat the bookies. There’s a reason why teaser limits are lesser than other bets offered! They’re beatable if you play your cards right!
Week 17 NFL Betting Strategy – Week seventeen is surely one of the more confusing and dangerous weeks to bet on professional football games. Point spreads are out of whack with regards to perception and for good reason; each team has it’s own agenda. The bookmakers know this and have reacted accordingly. It’s very common to see a team that’s 15-1 being a +3.5 underdog. It’s also common to see one of the worst teams in the league be favored. Loot explains why.
Betting Bad NFL Teams Against the Spread – Many NFL pundits (including ourselves) like to preach that good NFL teams win and bad teams cover. When it comes to NFL gambling, public perception is a huge variable in creating the point spread. How many games actually land close to the number? Not many! This article offers a case study on if betting on bad teams is a good thing or a bad thing.
NFL Teams That Are Due to Cover the Spread – A novice bettor might see a team that is 0-5 ATS as a great go against. A seasoned veteran gambler looks at 0-5 as a team is “due”. This by no means is a sure bet that the team is a lock to cover, it’s just that they’re more likely to cover than not, because the oddsmakers know that the public will be siding against them. This in turn allows the bookmaker to feather in an extra point or three into the spread, completely sucking the value out of the bad team’s opponent.
Loot dives deeper into the topic.
Betting Point Spreads vs. Moneylines – Betting moneyline dogs is a very interesting proposition as you can hit less than 50% and still turn a profit. If an NFL team is getting 2.5 points as an underdog, would it be prudent to take them on the moneyline since 1 and 2 aren’t key numbers in NFL betting? Loot dives into the topic of whether a guy should bet against the spread or go for the gusto and bet to win straight up.