Game Details
Minnesota Vikings (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (4-6 SU, 5-4-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 12
Date/Time: Sunday, November 24, 2024, 1:00 PM ET
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
TV: FOX
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Minnesota -3.5 / Chicago +3.5
Moneyline: Minnesota -185 / Chicago +150
Over/Under Total: 39.5
The Vikings are favored by 3.5 points in this NFC North matchup. With breezy 12 MPH winds and temperatures around 45°F expected, Soldier Field could be a factor in a game featuring two solid defenses.
Game Overview
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings come into this matchup riding an impressive 8-2 record, sitting second in the NFC North. Their defense has been a difference-maker, ranking top-10 in opponent yards per game (309.2) and excelling in red zone efficiency, allowing touchdowns on just 40.63% of red zone trips (#1 in the league).
Offensively, Minnesota leans on an efficient passing attack, averaging 224.6 yards per game (#13) and an impressive 8.2 yards per attempt (#6). Quarterback Sam Darnold has had moments of brilliance but has struggled with turnovers, throwing six interceptions in his last five games. On the ground, their rushing game is average, posting just 4.0 yards per carry (#27).
Key Stat: Minnesota is 4-1 ATS on the road this season, showing strong performances away from home.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have struggled to find consistency, sitting at 4-6 and last in the division. Their offense ranks near the bottom in yards per game (289.0, #29) and yards per play (4.5, #31), with quarterback protection being a major issue. Chicago has allowed sacks on 10.96% of dropbacks, the worst in the NFL, and faces a Vikings pass rush that ranks #6 in sack rate.
Defensively, the Bears have been stout in the red zone, ranking #7 in opponent scoring (18.7 PPG) and #4 in third-down defense (32.80%). However, their run defense has been leaky, allowing 130.3 rushing yards per game (#23) at 4.8 yards per carry (#26).
Key Stat: Chicago is undefeated ATS at home this season (4-0-2), keeping games competitive at Soldier Field.
Key Matchups and Analysis
- Vikings Passing Attack vs. Bears Secondary: Minnesota’s passing game thrives on big plays, with a league-best 11.2 yards per completion (#8). Chicago’s secondary has been solid, allowing just 6.9 yards per attempt (#22), but without much pressure from their defensive line (2.5 sacks per game, #16), Darnold could have time to pick apart the defense.
- Bears Run Game vs. Vikings Front Seven: Chicago will likely lean on their rushing attack, which averages 114.6 yards per game (#22). However, Minnesota’s defense has been elite against the run, allowing a league-best 74.4 yards per game. Look for Chicago to struggle moving the ball on the ground.
- Turnover Battle: Turnovers could swing this game. Minnesota leads the league in takeaways (2.1 per game), while Chicago protects the ball well, ranking #4 in giveaways per game (0.8). If the Bears avoid costly mistakes, they could keep this game close.
Betting Pick and Rationale
This divisional rivalry sets up as a defensive battle, with both teams excelling at keeping opponents out of the end zone. The Bears’ ATS success at home (4-0-2) makes them intriguing as underdogs, but Minnesota’s balanced attack and elite run defense give them the edge.
Best Bet: Under 39.5 points. Both defenses are solid, and with windy conditions and two conservative offenses, this game projects as a grind-it-out affair.
Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 20, Chicago 16
Minnesota should cover the spread, but the under is the sharper play in what looks like a low-scoring matchup.