The NIT continues Sunday night at The Pit, where No. 99 seed New Mexico hosts No. 99 seed George Washington in an elimination matchup that pits a Mountain West squad with defensive credibility against an Atlantic 10 visitor whose offensive rating ranks top-40 nationally but whose road discipline has been shaky all season. The Lobos opened as 7.5-point favorites with a total of 161.5, and the question for bettors is whether that spread properly accounts for George Washington's offensive firepower or overvalues New Mexico's home-court advantage in a tournament setting where résumé pressure no longer exists.
George Washington vs New Mexico Betting Preview
New Mexico checks in at -7.5 on DraftKings, and while the Lobos hold a clear net rating edge—plus-17.8 versus George Washington's plus-12.0—the model projection suggests this spread may be inflated by 3-4 points. The Colonials rank 36th nationally in offensive rating (120.2) and have shown they can score in bunches even in hostile environments, posting 79 at Utah Valley in their NIT opener. The Lobos counter with the 38th-ranked adjusted defense (100.4) and elite perimeter containment, allowing just 30.0% from three (13th nationally). But George Washington's 55.0% effective field goal percentage (49th) and 36.1% offensive rebounding rate (24th per KenPom) create second-chance scoring that could keep this closer than the number suggests. The total of 161.5 looks high given both teams' mid-60s pace and New Mexico's ability to grind possessions, with the model projecting closer to 152.
Game Information & Betting Odds
- Date: Sunday, March 22, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Location: The Pit, Albuquerque, NM
- Tournament: NIT
- TV: N/A
Betting Odds (DraftKings):
- Spread: New Mexico -7.5
- Total: 161.5
- Moneyline: New Mexico -325, George Washington +260
The Matchup
The single most decisive factor in this NIT matchup is whether New Mexico's elite perimeter defense can neutralize George Washington's three-point volume without allowing Rafael Castro (16.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG) to dominate the offensive glass. The Lobos allow just 30.0% from deep—13th-best in the nation—and force turnovers at a strong clip (19.1% forced turnover rate, 46th per KenPom). George Washington, however, ranks 24th nationally in offensive rebounding rate (36.1%) and generates 1,196 points in the paint this season, suggesting they can compensate for perimeter struggles by crashing the glass and attacking the rim. Castro is the fulcrum here: if he secures second-chance opportunities and gets to the line, the Colonials can hang around. If New Mexico's Tomislav Buljan (12.2 PPG, 11.0 RPG) controls the defensive glass, this could turn into a comfortable Lobos cover.
The pace battle favors New Mexico slightly—70.2 possessions per game (42nd) versus George Washington's 67.4 (156th)—but neither team pushes tempo aggressively, which should keep the total in check. The Colonials' turnover issues remain a concern: they rank 290th in turnover ratio (0.2) and cough it up 12.8 times per game (300th nationally). New Mexico's 8.0 steals per game (50th) and disciplined half-court defense could force George Washington into rushed possessions, especially if guards Garrett Johnson (14.9 PPG) and Christian Jones (11.6 PPG) struggle with ball security. The Lobos' assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.41 dwarfs George Washington's 1.23, and that discipline gap becomes magnified in a tournament setting where every possession matters.
Chris Howell (G) remains out for New Mexico with a wrist injury, but his absence has been factored into the Lobos' rotation for weeks and shouldn't alter the game script. George Washington's road profile is shaky—5-10 overall, 4-7 ATS away from home—but their 120.2 offensive rating suggests they can score even when the environment is hostile. The Pit is a tough venue, but this is a NIT game in late March, not a conference showdown in February. The question is whether New Mexico's defensive edge and turnover creation can overcome George Washington's offensive firepower and second-chance scoring. The spread feels a touch inflated, and the total looks 8-10 points too high given the projected pace and New Mexico's defensive identity.
Prediction
New Mexico should win this game outright—the net rating gap is real, and the Lobos' defensive efficiency gives them the higher floor. But George Washington's offensive rating and rebounding edge suggest they can keep this within a possession or two late. The Colonials' turnover issues are a legitimate concern, and if New Mexico forces 14-plus giveaways, this could get comfortable for the home side. But the model sees value on George Washington at +7.5, and the total projection of 152 points sits well below the 161.5 market number. Expect a grind-it-out affair where New Mexico's perimeter defense limits George Washington's three-point volume but Castro and the Colonials' offensive rebounding keep them in striking distance. The best bet here is George Washington +7.5 and a lean toward the under, though the side offers clearer value. New Mexico wins, but the Colonials cover in a 76-71 final that stays comfortably under the inflated total.