Early money has slightly favored the under despite both starters struggling with consistency this season.
Game Overview
The Orioles limp into the second half having dropped two of three to Miami before the break, but they've actually won six of their last nine overall. Tampa Bay is in free fall, losers of 11 of their last 14 including a four-game sweep at Boston. Head-to-head, Baltimore holds a 4-3 edge this season, including a 22-8 offensive explosion on June 27th. With Charlie Morton showing signs of improvement and Tampa's offense sputtering, this could be a perfect opportunity for Baltimore to steal the series opener.
Key Matchups & Analysis
- Charlie Morton's Resurgence
Despite his 5.18 ERA looking ugly, Morton has turned things around with a 3.05 ERA over his last 59 innings. He dominated the Rays in their June 19th meeting (6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K) and has an impressive 5-3, 2.78 ERA career mark against Tampa. - Bradley's Orioles Nightmare
Taj Bradley has been absolutely torched by Baltimore this season, going 0-1 with a horrific 14.85 ERA and 2.40 WHIP across two starts. His career numbers against the Orioles are equally concerning: 1-3 with an 8.65 ERA in six starts. - O'Hearn's All-Star Momentum
Ryan O'Hearn has been Baltimore's offensive bright spot, earning an All-Star nod while batting .286 with a stellar .382 OBP. He could be the difference-maker against Bradley, who's struggled to contain left-handed bats. - Bullpen Battle
While Tampa's bullpen has been generally solid (3.05 ERA through June 25), Baltimore holds the trump card with Felix Bautista, who's returned from Tommy John surgery to post a 2.41 ERA with 48 Ks in 33.1 innings. His presence gives the Orioles a significant late-inning advantage.