Houston has been red-hot, winning 9 of their last 10 games SU. But what jumps off the page is the 1-9 ATS mark for Golden State in the last 10 head-to-heads — Rockets have consistently covered.

Game Overview

Houston is 22-15 on the road and playing with confidence. They’re top-5 in rebounds (45.5 per game), especially crashing the offensive glass (12.6 OREB, 4th in the NBA). Sengun and Jalen Green have taken turns dominating, while Fred VanVleet gives them a steady hand.

Golden State remains elite offensively with Steph leading the charge, but they've quietly underperformed in terms of ATS results at home. Their defense is solid — top-5 in FG% allowed — but recent meetings suggest they struggle with Houston's pace and physicality.

Key Matchups and Analysis

• Rebounding Edge: This is Houston’s clearest edge. They rank 5th in total rebounds and outpace Golden State significantly in OREBs. Sengun and Adams are monsters on the glass, and second-chance points will be key in this one.
• Perimeter Volume Battle: Contrary to prior assumption, Houston is 20th in 3PA (35.7/game). This isn’t a team chucking triples — they work through the paint and midrange, while Golden State defends the arc well (2nd in opponent 3PM). So the Rockets' efficiency and rebounding become even more important.
• Injury Factor: Jabari Smith Jr. is questionable, which could impact Houston’s spacing. Still, they’ve shown they can win with depth — Adams, Thompson, and Green have stepped up in his absence.
• Situational Spot: Houston has been undervalued. Despite being 2nd in the West, they're catching +5.5 — and that screams value in a rivalry where they've covered 9 of the last 10.