Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Date: October 13, 2024
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Odds
- Spread: Baltimore -6.5, Washington +6.5
- Total: 51.5
- Moneyline: Baltimore -280, Washington +230
Game Preview
The Washington Commanders (4-1) are one of the biggest surprises of the season, rattling off four straight wins after dropping their season opener. Their offense has been productive, averaging **31 points per game**, but their upcoming contest against the Baltimore Ravens (3-2) will be their toughest test yet. The Ravens feature the league’s top rushing defense, allowing just **60.4 yards per game** and **3.1 yards per carry**. Baltimore also ranks seventh in sacks, averaging **3.2 sacks per game**, which could spell trouble for Washington's offense.
The Ravens come into the game having won three straight, but only one of those wins was by more than the current spread of 6.5 points. However, their **35-10 demolition of Buffalo** in their only home game during this streak shows that they are capable of putting together a complete game at M&T Bank Stadium.
Key Factors to Watch
1. Washington's Offensive Production vs. Baltimore's Defense
Washington’s ability to run the ball has been a key factor in their success, but they’ll be facing a Ravens defense that ranks first in rushing yards allowed and third in yards per rush. This presents a significant challenge for the Commanders, who will need to establish the run to keep Baltimore’s defense off balance.
2. Baltimore’s Run Game Control
Baltimore’s rushing attack has been dominant, averaging **220.25 rushing yards per game** over their last three games. Washington’s defense, which has allowed **139 rushing yards per game** on the road, will need to find ways to contain Baltimore's run game to prevent them from controlling the game tempo.
3. Washington's Road Challenges
While Washington has played well this season, they’ve struggled on the road, with a **2-5 SU** record in their last seven road games. Going up against a Ravens team that’s strong at home, Washington’s ability to handle this environment will be crucial.
Betting Pick
Despite Washington’s strong start, Baltimore’s top-ranked rushing defense and ability to extend the margin at home make them the better pick to cover the **6.5-point spread**. The Ravens have the tools to slow down Washington’s offense while controlling the clock with their dominant rushing attack, making them a solid play to win and cover at home.