Game Details
Washington Commanders (8-5 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS)
NFL Week 15
Date/Time: December 15th, 1:00 PM ET
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Weather: Dome
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Washington -7.5 (-105) | New Orleans +7.5 (-115)
Money Line: Washington -400 | New Orleans +310
Over/Under Total: 43.5 (u -110 / o -110)
Game Overview
The Washington Commanders are rolling into this matchup with an 8-5 SU record and an impressive 8-4-1 ATS mark. Coming off a dominant 42-19 win over Tennessee, Washington's offense has been explosive, averaging 28.9 points per game (4th in the NFL). Their rushing attack is a force, ranking 3rd in yards per game (156.9) and 5th in yards per rush (4.9).
On the other side, the Saints are spiraling at 5-8 SU and remain winless ATS (0-6) against teams with winning records this season. New Orleans may also be without QB Derek Carr (concussion and hand injury), leaving backup Jameis Winston as the likely starter. The Saints’ defense ranks 30th in total yards allowed (380.5) and has been gashed on the ground, allowing 5.0 yards per carry (32nd).
Key Matchups and Analysis
1. Washington’s Rushing Attack vs. Saints Run Defense
Washington’s ground game, led by a physical offensive line and dynamic rushing threats, is a nightmare matchup for New Orleans. The Saints allow 134.2 rushing yards per game (25th) and a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry. Expect Washington to lean heavily on the run, controlling the clock and wearing down an overmatched defense.
2. Saints QB Situation
Derek Carr’s status is in serious doubt, and if Jameis Winston starts, turnovers could become a major issue. Washington’s defense forces turnovers and capitalizes on mistakes, and the Saints' offensive line has allowed consistent pressure this season. Winston's risk-taking style could play right into Washington's hands.
3. Commanders’ Red-Hot Offense
Washington averages 28.9 points per game, good for 4th in the league, and has scored 27+ points in 5 of their last 7 games. Their passing efficiency (7.4 yards per attempt) complements their elite rushing attack, putting immense pressure on a Saints defense that ranks 29th in yards per play allowed (6.1).
Betting Pick and Rationale
Laying the points with Washington is the sharp play here. The Saints are 0-6 outright and ATS against winning teams, and their defensive struggles against the run play directly into Washington’s strengths. With Derek Carr likely sidelined, New Orleans’ offense will struggle to keep pace.
Pick: Washington -7.5
Prediction: Washington 31, New Orleans 17
Washington’s balanced attack will dominate on the ground, and the Saints simply don’t have the firepower or defensive ability to stay competitive.