NFC Wild Card Playoffs
Date/Time: Monday, January 13, 2025 at 8PM EST
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
TV: ESPN
Betting Odds
Point Spread: MIN +1/LAR -1 (Bovada)
Money Line: MIN -105/LAR -115
Over/Under Total: 48
The Minnesota Vikings come to SoFi Stadium to face the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Wild Card Playoffs on Monday. As we can see, winning your division goes a long way toward postseason placement, with the Vikes unable to win a demanding NFC North, while the Rams were able to come out on top of a down NFC West this season. That’s how we get a 14-win team on the road against a 10-7 Rams squad. Neither team finished the season with a win, as the Rams had a throwaway spot in week 18, losing to Seattle, 30-25. The Vikings, meanwhile, laid a stinker in a game to decide who gets the one-seed in the NFC, beaten badly by Detroit, 31-9, last week. Who do we get behind in this NFC playoff tilt from LA?
Game News
With this game being on Monday, there is still time to determine what’s going to happen, as fires in the Los Angeles area have this game in some amount of jeopardy as of press time. Moving this game to Arizona is being discussed as an early option should things deteriorate. While losing a playoff home-spot would certainly impact the Rams negatively, a full-dive into the ramifications of the game moving would appear to be premature. Needless to say, a proactive stance on the Rams would take a decent-sized hit should this game be moved. But let’s cross that bridge when we get to it.
Case for the Rams
I don’t think it’s of no significance that the Rams were able to beat a Vikings team that so seldom tasted defeat this season, with a 30-20 win back in late-October. Granted, it was back in week eight, but that makes this Rams team the only team other than the one-seed in their conference in the Lions to beat the Vikings this season. That game, also at SoFi, saw the Vikings get off to a fast start before Matthew Stafford started hitting his targets, along with RB Kyren Williams having a good game. And while guys like WR Cooper Kupp and WR Puka Nacua did their share of the heavy lifting, it was DeMarcus Robinson’s two TD passes and a TD reception by Williams which made the difference.
It sometimes looks easier than it is with the Rams, particularly with their defense. The Vikings found this out in their game against the Rams, as things looked easy enough early before the Rams tightened up and gave Minnesota a pretty hard time later in the game. You look up and see damning results where some of the more talented offenses the Rams play more or less have their way with the Rams’ defense. While the Vikings would tend to rate as one of those higher-end offensive units, they’ve been slightly-muted on the road, didn’t thrive in their first real high-stakes spot last week, and face one of the few defenses to have done well against them this season.
But Not So Fast…
While it’s true that the final-week dud for the Vikings left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth and their defense waned some down the stretch, it seems Minnesota is being denied some credit for the season they had. They had a far-better overall season than the Rams and despite losing to them, lost to only one other team. Maybe it’s people still reserving some judgment on Sam Darnold as a big-game quarterback, especially when compared to the QB on the other sideline. Either way, I’ve seen other 14-win teams get a lot more respect.
While the Rams’ offensive nucleus commands respect and in some ways matches up well with the Vikings with the two good receivers and a good back, the Vikings have a lot to counter with in this pairing. Justin Jefferson is probably the highest-ceiling player on the field, with Jordan Addison seeming a little more-likely than Cooper Kupp at this point to register a big performance. Aaron Jones gave the Vikings’ run-game some extra juice this season and maybe tight end TJ Hockenson springs to life here at some point. And while Darnold isn’t a postseason presence who elicits fear, his Baker Mayfield-like trajectory into relevance shows some of what he’s made of and it might not be that easy to derail what they created this season.
Points to Consider
This is big for Sam Darnold and his career, as a win in a playoff game gives him some standing for a big contract. This is worth millions to him, and after not really delivering in his only other real money game last week, this is critical. He’s going to need to be a lot better and that goes for the guys up front on that offensive line. Despite Detroit’s defense being in tatters, last week they climbed all over this Vikings’ O-line, and if the Rams start to do that in this game, things can get out of hand.
Still, the Vikings aren’t reduced to how they looked against a superior Lions team, nor what happened in week 8 against these Rams. Otherwise, they’ve been one of the more complete teams. When operating well, their offense runs smoothly, while the Brian Flores-run defense makes a big difference. Last week was a bad game plan, with some in-game decisions that backfired, and it happened against the top-seed in the conference—a forgivable setback in the bigger scheme of things.
Take the Small Road Dog
There is some value to be had on a 14-win team getting a point in this spot. The Rams are dangerous and in many ways, this game does have a kind of toss-up appeal to it. I just can’t get away from the idea that a playoff-winning performance is a slightly more bankable outcome for this Vikings team than it is for the Rams, that it’s just a level of play that might be slightly more accessible to the Vikings this week. I think the Vikings get those couple extra big plays that get them over the hump on Monday. I’ll take Minnesota.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:
I’m betting on the Minnesota Vikings plus one point.
