Houston Texans (10-7 SU, 8-8-2 ATS) vs Kansas City Chiefs (15-2 SU, 8-9 ATS)
NFL Divisional Playoffs
Date/Time: Saturday, January 18, 2025, 4:30 PM ET
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Odds: Kansas City -10, Total: 41.5
Game Overview
The Kansas City Chiefs enter this matchup as 10-point favorites, riding high after a dominant 15-2 regular season. Their defense, ranked 4th in points allowed (19.2 PPG), has been the cornerstone of their success, while the offense averages a steady 22.6 PPG (15th). Houston, meanwhile, comes off a strong season, finishing 10-7 and ranking 16th in scoring (22.4 PPG). Despite being underdogs, the Texans have shown the ability to compete, especially with their opportunistic defense that leads the league in takeaways per game (1.8).
Key Matchups and Analysis
1. **Texans’ Run Game vs Chiefs’ Rush Defense**
Houston relies heavily on its rushing attack, averaging 115.4 yards per game (14th). The Chiefs’ run defense, ranked 5th in yards allowed (101.8 YPG), will be a key factor. If Houston can establish the run early and control time of possession (they rank 6th in TOP), they can limit Patrick Mahomes’ opportunities.
2. **Chiefs’ Passing Game vs Texans’ Secondary**
Kansas City’s passing attack, led by Mahomes, averages 222.4 yards per game (13th). However, Houston’s secondary has been a surprise strength, allowing just 201.6 passing yards per game (6th) and leading the league in interceptions thrown percentage (3.92%). Mahomes will need to be cautious against this ball-hawking defense, which could create turnovers to keep Houston in the game.
3. **Red Zone Efficiency**
Red zone scoring efficiency could play a pivotal role. The Chiefs rank 22nd in red zone TD scoring percentage (53.85%), while Houston has struggled defensively in the red zone, allowing touchdowns on 62.22% of trips (24th). If Kansas City converts red zone opportunities into touchdowns, they’ll be difficult to beat.
Betting Trends
- Houston is 8-8-2 ATS this season and ranks 6th in time of possession (51.83%).
- Kansas City is 8-9 ATS this season but 7-2 SU at home.
- Both teams lean toward lower-scoring games: Houston is 7-10-1 O/U, and Kansas City is 7-10 O/U.
- The Texans lead the league in takeaways per game (1.8), giving them a chance to keep this close.
Betting Pick and Rationale
Kansas City’s defense and home dominance make them the logical pick to win outright, but a 10-point spread feels steep given Houston’s strengths on defense and ability to force turnovers. The Texans’ 6th-ranked secondary and strong time of possession could frustrate Mahomes and keep this closer than expected.
The total of 41.5 is also worth a look. Both teams have trended toward the Under this season, and with two defenses capable of limiting big plays, a low-scoring game seems likely.
Best Bets:
- Houston +10
- Under 41.5
Final Score Prediction:
Kansas City 23, Houston 16