Game Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) vs. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
Date: October 3, 2024 | Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Point Spread
- Tampa Bay: +1.5 (-110)
- Atlanta: -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 43.5 (-110)
Team Performance Analysis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Record: 3-1 (ATS: 3-1)
- Offense (PPG): 24.25
- Defense (PPG allowed): 19.50
- Yards Per Pass: 9.8 (Offense), 8.58 (Defense)
- Yards Per Rush: 4.09 (Offense), 5.01 (Defense)
- Turnover Differential: -0.5
Tampa Bay boasts a well-rounded team, with a strong offense scoring just over 24 points per game and a defense that limits opponents to under 20 points. Their passing game (9.8 YPA) is a clear strength, but their rush defense, allowing 5.01 yards per rush, could be vulnerable against Atlanta’s ground game. The Buccaneers also excel on the road, holding a 1-0 ATS record away from home.
Atlanta Falcons
- Record: 2-2 (ATS: 1-3)
- Offense (PPG): 18.75
- Defense (PPG allowed): 21.25
- Yards Per Pass: 10.73 (Offense), 8.13 (Defense)
- Yards Per Rush: 4.57 (Offense), 4.04 (Defense)
- Turnover Differential: 0.25
Atlanta’s offense has struggled, averaging 18.75 points per game, while their defense has allowed over 21 points per contest. Despite these challenges, their passing attack is highly efficient (10.73 YPA), which could be a concern for Tampa Bay’s defense. However, their poor performance against the spread (1-3 ATS) and struggles at home (0-3 ATS) are notable issues.
Key Matchups
Passing Attack
Tampa Bay’s passing game (9.8 YPA) will likely be a major factor against Atlanta’s defense, which has struggled to defend the pass (8.13 YPA allowed). This advantage through the air could give the Buccaneers the upper hand.
Running Game
While Atlanta’s ground game (4.57 YPR) is slightly better than Tampa Bay’s (4.09 YPR), the Buccaneers’ inability to stop the run (5.01 YPR allowed) could allow the Falcons to control the pace of the game. If Atlanta establishes their running game early, they could dominate time of possession.
Head-to-Head
Tampa Bay has dominated this matchup recently, winning 6 of the last 8 meetings and covering the spread in 4 of the last 5 games in Atlanta. Historically, these matchups tend to be high-scoring, with the total going over in 7 of the last 8 games played in Atlanta.
Trends and Recent Form
- Tampa Bay: 9-3 SU in their last 12 games, 4-1 SU in their last 5 road games.
- Atlanta: 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, 2-6 SU in their last 8 against Tampa Bay.
- Total: Over in 9 of the last 12 meetings between these teams.
Power Stats Comparison
- Tampa Bay: Yards-per-point differential of -4.04 indicates greater efficiency in turning yards into points.
- Atlanta: Yards-per-point differential of +0.66 shows that Atlanta’s offense must work harder to score, while their defense allows fewer yards per point.
Final Pick
Considering Tampa Bay’s stronger form, their head-to-head dominance over Atlanta, and Atlanta’s struggles both at home and against the spread, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 appears to be the safer pick. The Buccaneers' efficiency in the passing game, combined with historical trends, gives them a slight edge. Additionally, with a history of high-scoring matchups between these teams, the over 43.5 total could also be in play.
