Super Bowl LIV Early Thoughts

By Loot, NFL Handicapper,

The Conference Championships have just wrapped up and as the smoke is clearing, we strive to form and shape the Super Bowl LIV reality. It’s one of those tough Super Bowls where a very clear case for victory can be made on either side. There are ample things to like on both sides, up and down the roster—on both sides of the ball. With how evenly-matched these teams are and looking at the early line, this will be one of the tightest spreads in Super Bowl history.

Getting a Lay of the Land

These playoffs have been telling. The San Francisco 49ers have forged their way to two postseason wins into Super Bowl 54 without much incident, with double-digit no-sweat victories over the Vikings and the Packers. They look to be a well-oiled team, finishing the season strongly, before finding their peak in the postseason. And it wasn’t easy, as they needed to right the ship after a rough patch during a 3-3 run that followed their big 8-0 start. But with that run-game clicking and a young defense that has hitters on all levels, they now look every bit the part of a Super Bowl contender.


For the Kansas City Chiefs, the end-results in these playoffs look routine enough—a 51-31 win over Houston, followed by a 35-24 win over the Titans. But within those games is hope for San Francisco, as the Chiefs had to overcome big deficits in both games, beginning each game in ragged form. First, they fell behind 24-0 to the Texans before exploding for a 51-point output. And on Sunday in the AFC title game, they twice fell behind by double-digit deficits, before again blossoming later in the game. While these offensive displays offer promise, the prospects of them falling behind like that to this Niners’ team is a daunting proposition indeed.

Why It’s Hard to Bet Against KC in This Spot

While Lamar Jackson will likely haul in the MVP this season, for the purposes of this game and the high stakes, you can’t do better than Patrick Mahomes. The defending MVP is in fine form. Whereas last season, the Chiefs’ offense may have peaked early, this season shows them hitting their highest notes at just the right time. Andy Reid has been here before and now looks for his first ring after over two decades as a head coach. And after making it to the AFC title game and losing painfully in overtime last season, the Chiefs look for one better this season.

Not many people will ponder defense when calibrating the Chiefs’ chances in Super Bowl LIV, but that could be a mistake. Between some various bad showings in the regular season and some dicey moments in this postseason, the public’s confidence on this side of the ball might be low. But let’s balance some of those issues with some of the good things we’ve seen—holding their last 6 regular season opponents to a combined 70 points, shutting the Texans down after a horrible start, and keeping Derrick Henry in check in the conference title game. We’ve seen first-year Chiefs players like Tyrann Mathieu and Frank Clark really ramping up their play in the playoffs. But it gets really tough in this game.

Why Betting Against the Niners is Difficult

Despite some slipups, they have clearly been the class of the NFC this season, first with the 8-0 start, some big wins late in the season, and a rather trouble-free run through the playoffs to the Bowl. Giving it extra juice is how unexpected it was. While most viewed the 49ers as a team that could be on the rise if they can avoid costly injuries, not many forecasted this level of success, particularly in a top-heavy conference where any number of other teams were more-fancied to get to this spot. But we finally saw what was possible when a roster packed with talent catches a few breaks.

Against the Packers, San Fran QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw only 8 passes and they still won going away. In the divisional round against Minnesota, he threw for only 131 yards. So how is a QB with Pop Warner numbers thriving in this context? Well, they run the heck out of the ball and seeing Raheem Mostert going for over 200 yards against Green Bay shows a ground-game that has really hit their peak. They still have other layers they can unravel, with George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, and others lying in wait. So while we might see a rather one-dimensional offense, that doesn’t mean they don’t have other dimensions they can’t unveil. And making it all come together is the coaching, as Kyle Shanahan is an innovative mind on offense. It shows on the field, as they always seem to dial up the right answers.

Will the Niners’ Defense Be Too Much?

Granted, the Chiefs have a defense capable of big things. They could conceivably make a major impact on this game with a big-play ability that could potentially manifest. But the Niners would appear to have a more bankable unit on defense. They already had abundant talent on that side of the ball, but with much better health and player development, things really took off. Add some difference-making rookies like Nick Bosa and Dre Greenlaw and we now see a defense that is deep on all levels. They had the top-ranked secondary this season, which could go a long way against Mahomes, with an ample pass-rush that could have also have a major impact.

Let the Decision Breathe

The Super Bowl is unique for many reasons. For bettors, they have a different landscape than they do at any other part of the season, getting a full two weeks to make the decision. And as this is being written the day after the conference finals, it’s important to allow the decision-making to unfold in a more long-range sense. Sure, we might have an idea of what we’re going to do. But this is a time of the year that calls for more patience, to let the decision breathe a bit, as we scour the full scope of different possibilities. Did you know… that you could be wagering on Super Bowl LIV at discounted odds? There’s a better than good chance that you’re laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to BetAnySports Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

Quit wasting your hard earned money! Make the switch from -110 to -105 odds today
You'll be so glad that you did! Click Here!

NFL Betting

Reduced Juice – Loot explains how reduced odds football betting works and where you can find this valuable asset.

What is a Point Spread? – Many new to the game struggle to understand why one side has a (+) while the other has a (-) in front of a team. We explain what the spread is and how it works.

Football Bets – All the different types of wagers that you can make when betting on football games.

What Professional Handicappers Do – Learn the tricks of the trade and increase your odds of beating the books!

Key Numbers – The article that bookies don’t want you to read!

NFL Betting Quiz – Test your football wagering prowess with Loot’s 10 question quiz!

Super Bowl 52 Predictions – Loot gives his preseason picks for which teams are most likely to win “the big game” along with middle of the road and a longshot that is sure to surprise you!

2017 NFL Season Wins Predictions – Loot breaks down every team and gives his opinion on how they’ll do vs. the number!

2017 NFL Bye Weeks – The first set start in Week 5 and the final byes take place in Week 11. Loot also gives tips on betting on teams coming off byes.

2017 NFL Coaching Changes – We seem to be in an era where football coaches become disposable in an instant if they don’t win. 2016 was no different as a handful of teams made the switch. Check out who went where right here!


Famous Football Players – Biographies of the best and greatest NFL football players of all-time.

Greatest NFL Players of All Time – A list of all time greats at each position. Each position has it’s own dedicated article!

Best Quarterbacks of All Time – Joe Montana heads our list of top 10 QB’s, however, Tom Brady is a sure bet to give him a run for his money by the time his career is said and done.

Best Running Backs of All Time – We list the top 10 greatest ball carriers of all-time. The order may be debatable, as Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton all brought something special to the gridiron.

Football Lingo – One must be very familiar with all of the terms, slang and jargon associated with this game to win at football betting. Find a slew of pigskin terminology right here!

Football Quotes – Funny and memorable sayings from around the National Football League including comments made by Vince Lombardi and John Madden.