by Loot Levinson | Last updated Oct 6, 2024 | NFL
Las Vegas Raiders (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 5
Date/Time: Sunday, October 6, 2024, at 4:05 PM EDT
Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV: Fox
Betting Odds
- Point Spread: LV +2.5/DEN -2.5 (Bovada)
- Money Line: LV +125/DEN -150
- Over/Under Total: 35.0
The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos square off in an AFC West showdown on Sunday, both sitting at 2-2 and looking to inch above .500. Denver has built some momentum with two consecutive road wins, including a hard-fought 10-9 victory over the Jets. The Raiders, meanwhile, took down Cleveland 20-16 at home, largely thanks to a defense that clamped down in the second half. The question heading into this game is: which team will emerge with a third win?
Denver’s Resilient Defense
After stumbling out of the gate in Week 1, Denver’s defense has significantly tightened up. In the last three games, the Broncos have allowed a combined 29 points, ranking them 3rd in the league in total defense (256.5 yards per game). Their pass defense is especially stingy, allowing only 146 passing yards per game, also 3rd best in the NFL. The Broncos’ pass rush has been electric, registering 12 sacks in the last two games, which puts them 2nd in the league with 4 sacks per game.
Their ability to control the trenches will be pivotal against the Raiders' offense, which has struggled to find any rhythm. Denver’s run defense isn’t elite, allowing 110.5 rushing yards per game (12th), but Las Vegas is dead last in rushing offense, averaging just 76.2 rushing yards per game.
Bo Nix, Denver’s rookie quarterback, has been serviceable but limited. While he threw his first touchdown last week, he managed only 60 passing yards against the Jets, and Denver ranks just 24th in total offense (288.8 yards per game). This game will likely hinge on their defense making big plays, just as it has in recent weeks.
Can Las Vegas Offense Break Through?
For Las Vegas, it has been a rocky ride, especially on offense. The Raiders have managed 212.5 passing yards per game, and Gardner Minshew’s performance has been inconsistent. Over the last two games, Minshew has averaged 170 passing yards, with just one touchdown and one interception. His 88.2 passer rating ranks 19th in the league. If star wideout Davante Adams remains sidelined, the pressure will mount on Minshew to elevate his game and make use of secondary targets like Jakobi Meyers and tight end Brock Bowers.
One thing working in Las Vegas’s favor is Denver’s penalty problem. The Broncos average 8.5 penalties per game, the second most in the league, which could give the Raiders’ offense some room to operate.
Defensively, Las Vegas has been up and down but may have turned a corner. Despite dealing with injuries to key players like Maxx Crosby, they held Cleveland scoreless for the final three-quarters last week. The Raiders' defense ranks 5th in completion percentage allowed (71.1%), but they’ve struggled against the run, ranking 31st in rushing yards allowed (76.2 per game). Denver hasn’t been great on the ground either, so this matchup may allow Las Vegas to focus on disrupting the Broncos’ passing game.
Key Matchups to Watch
Raiders Pass Protection vs. Broncos Pass Rush: Denver’s defensive front is hot, and they’ll look to keep Minshew under pressure. With Denver averaging 4 sacks per game, it’ll be key for Las Vegas to give their quarterback time to push the ball downfield.
Broncos Running Game vs. Raiders Run Defense: Both teams have been weak in the run game. Denver’s 3.6 yards per carry ranks 29th in the league, and Las Vegas is allowing 4.1 yards per carry (9th in the NFL). Whichever team can establish some semblance of a rushing attack may control the clock and grind out a win.
Take the Points with Denver at Home
Despite the Raiders showing some flashes, it’s tough to trust an offense that ranks in the bottom third of the league in most categories. Denver has momentum and a defense that’s growing stronger by the week. With the pass rush heating up and Las Vegas likely missing key offensive weapons, the Broncos should be able to cover the 2.5-point spread at home. Denver’s 3-1 record ATS this season provides even more confidence in laying the points.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:
I’m betting on the Denver Broncos -2.5 points.
