Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2 SU, 8-2 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS)
NFL Football Week 12
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, November 21, 2024, at 8:15 PM EST
Where: Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, Ohio
TV: Prime Video
Betting Odds
Point Spread: PIT -3.5/CLE +3.5
Money Line: PIT -190/CLE +155
Over/Under Total: 36
Thursday Night Football features an AFC North battle as the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) visit the Cleveland Browns (2-8). Pittsburgh has been dominant this season, covering the spread in all eight of their wins while leveraging a run-heavy attack and solid defense. Meanwhile, Cleveland is struggling, with just two wins but a 3-7 record ATS. Can the Browns rise to the occasion in a divisional rivalry, or will the Steelers continue their run of success? Let’s dive in!
Game Overview
The Pittsburgh Steelers bring their league-best 8-2 record into Cleveland, aiming to extend their dominance in the AFC North. They’re fresh off a hard-fought 18-16 win over the Baltimore Ravens and boast a balanced offense that controls the game clock and an opportunistic defense that creates turnovers. The Cleveland Browns, by contrast, have struggled mightily, particularly on offense, but they’ll hope to leverage the home crowd and an improving Jameis Winston to upset the division leaders.
Key Matchups and Betting Analysis
Pittsburgh Offense: The Steelers are built to control the ground game, ranking 2nd in rush play percentage (52.45%) and 8th in rushing yards per game (136.7). QB Russell Wilson adds efficiency through the air, avoiding turnovers and capitalizing on play-action opportunities.
Cleveland Defense: Cleveland ranks 27th in yards per play allowed and 24th in rushing yards allowed per game, making them a prime target for Pittsburgh’s run-heavy scheme. Additionally, their inability to generate turnovers (0.7 takeaways per game, 30th) limits their ability to flip the script.
Turnover Battle: Pittsburgh’s +1.1 turnover margin per game (2nd in NFL) contrasts sharply with Cleveland’s -0.5 margin (23rd). The Steelers’ ability to force mistakes and avoid giving the ball away could create short fields and scoring chances.
Despite Cleveland’s struggles, this total feels low for a divisional game with big-play potential. Pittsburgh’s efficient rushing attack can exploit Cleveland’s defensive weaknesses, while the Browns may manage some points in desperation mode or during garbage time. Our prediction: Steelers 24, Browns 16. Play the Over.
Betting Pick: Over 36
