Game Details
Tennessee Titans (3-11 SU, 2-12 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-8 SU, 8-6 ATS)
NFL Football Week 16
Date/Time: Sunday, December 22, 1:00 PM ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
TV: CBS
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Indianapolis -4.5 / Tennessee +4.5
Money Line: Indianapolis -225 / Tennessee +180
Over/Under Total: 42.5
Game Overview
The Colts look to stay alive in the playoff picture as they host a struggling Tennessee Titans squad in Week 16. Indianapolis has been competitive at Lucas Oil Stadium this season, holding a respectable 3-3 SU record with victories over playoff-caliber teams like Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Miami. However, turnovers have been a key issue, as seen in their last game when they coughed up the ball five times but still outgained the opposition 310-193 yards.
The Titans come into this matchup reeling, posting a 2-5 SU road record against a tough schedule. Tennessee’s offense has been inconsistent, ranking 29th in total yards (301.0 per game) and averaging just 18.1 points per contest (28th). Despite their struggles, Tennessee has shown flashes of life and is looking to avenge a narrow 20-17 loss to the Colts earlier this season when Joe Flacco was under center for Indy.
Key Matchups and Analysis
Colts Offense vs Titans Defens
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Indianapolis has been able to move the ball effectively, averaging 366.1 yards per game (27th defense allowed) but struggling to protect the football. QB Gardner Minshew has been serviceable but turnover-prone, which could allow Tennessee’s opportunistic defense to capitalize, even though the Titans rank 31st in takeaways with just 1.2 interceptions per game.
The Titans’ run defense, allowing 4.5 yards per rush, will be tested by a Colts rushing attack that has gained momentum recently with explosive plays. RB Jonathan Taylor's ability to find holes could tilt the matchup toward Indy.
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Tennessee's passing game under QB Will Levis has shown promise but remains inconsistent. Levis has thrown for 7 TDs and 6 INTs this season, and the Colts' secondary (allowing 224.4 passing yards/game) could offer opportunities if Tennessee's offensive line holds up. However, Indianapolis has been solid in the red zone and has limited opponents to 23.5 points per game.
The Titans' run game, averaging 110.4 yards/game (19th), remains their best weapon, especially against a Colts defense that ranks 30th in rushing yards allowed (141.6 per game). If RB Derrick Henry can get going early, Tennessee could shorten the game and stay within striking distance.
Situational Angles
Indianapolis is 3-3 at home but has only faced two playoff-bound teams, losing close games to Houston and Buffalo.
Tennessee is 2-5 on the road against a brutal schedule, including trips to Buffalo, Detroit, and Houston.
Playoff Motivation: The Colts are still alive for a wild-card spot, which could give them an extra edge against a Titans team playing for pride.
Betting Pick and Rationale
The Colts have shown flashes of quality play, particularly at home, while the Titans have struggled to sustain consistency on the road. Indianapolis outplayed Tennessee earlier in the year and boasts a balanced offensive attack against a Titans defense prone to lapses in key moments.
While turnovers remain a concern for Indy, their ability to outgain opponents—combined with Tennessee's bottom-five offense—gives them the edge.
I like Indianapolis to cover the -4.5 spread here. The Colts are playing with urgency to keep their slim playoff hopes alive and should control the pace against an overmatched Titans squad.
Final Score Prediction: Colts 27, Titans 20
Best Bet: Colts -4.5
Lean: Over 42.5 (turnovers could lead to short fields)
