I've been handicapping NFL games for over four decades, and I've seen plenty of big numbers that make bettors nervous. But sometimes the line tells you everything you need to know about the gap between two football teams. Buffalo laying 16 points to New Orleans isn't Vegas being cute – it's a reflection of fundamental football reality.
Let me break this down the old-fashioned way, focusing on the meat and potatoes that win football games. I've been doing this since the 1980s, and the principles haven't changed: you win games by executing in the red zone, converting third downs, and controlling the line of scrimmage.
The Saints are a broken football team right now. They're 0-3 not because of bad luck, but because they can't execute basic football fundamentals. Their 38% red zone touchdown conversion rate tells me they can't finish drives when it matters. Meanwhile, Buffalo's defense is allowing touchdowns on just 28% of red zone attempts. That's a recipe for field goals versus touchdowns, and you can't cover spreads kicking field goals.
On third downs, it's even more lopsided. New Orleans is converting just 31% of their third down attempts while Buffalo's defense stops 68% of third down tries. I've been watching football long enough to know that third down efficiency is the heartbeat of any offense. When you can't stay on the field, you can't control games.
Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level through three games, and he's got extra rest coming off Thursday night. Spencer Rattler showed flashes against Seattle, but most of that production came in garbage time when the Seahawks were playing prevent defense. Against Buffalo's aggressive defense at home, he's going to face constant pressure.
The line play differential is stark. Buffalo's offensive line has been protecting Allen beautifully, allowing pressure on just 22% of dropbacks. New Orleans has been a sieve, giving up pressure on 41% of passing plays. When your young quarterback is constantly under duress,…