Efficiency gaps, pressure rate, and red-zone splits in Denver set the stage for a data-backed betting angle without the noise.
Raiders vs Broncos Efficiency Data: Where the Edge Shows
The advanced numbers point to a meaningful efficiency gap on Thursday night in Denver. Across drive-level and situational metrics, the Broncos stack up as the steadier side at home. They rank 3rd in yards per point allowed (14.2), while Las Vegas sits 28th in yards per point generated (16.8). That 2.6-yard gap has translated to roughly 2–3 points of expected value historically. Denver’s defensive EPA/play sits at -0.18 (4th), pressing a Raiders offense producing 0.34 points per play. The model gives Denver a 73% win probability on efficiency alone, with comparable profiles covering about 64% of the time as home favorites in the 7–10 range.
Form matters, too. A six-game win streak has come with better offensive efficiency—now 0.48 PPP versus 0.41 earlier. Las Vegas has ticked up with Brock Bowers healthy, but the Broncos still hold the broader, system-level advantages.
NFL Week 10 Game Information & Betting Odds
- Teams: Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
- Date/Time: Thursday, November 6, 2025 — 8:15 PM ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
- TV: Prime Video
- Spread: Raiders +8.0 (-105) / Broncos -8.0 (-115)
- Moneyline: Raiders +375 / Broncos -525
- Total: 41.5 (O -110 / U -110)
- Weather: No material weather factors expected
- Key Injuries: Patrick Surtain II (out), Marvin Mims (concussion protocol)
Points-Per-Play Lens
Denver’s offense generates 0.48 PPP and the defense allows 0.31—a net of +0.17 (5th). Las Vegas sits at 0.34 PPP on offense and 0.42 allowed (net -0.08, 24th). That 0.25 PPP differential maps to about 3.8 points per game historically. Red zone: Denver’s 67% TD rate vs. LV’s 52% allowed adds roughly two points in close quarters. First down success (DEN 48%) and third down (DEN 42% vs. LV defense 38%) support sustained drives. The model output: Denver 24.1, Las Vegas 16.8, adjusted for pace.
Defensive Profile Check
Denver’s front sets the tone: 1st in sack rate (11.2%) and 4th in pressure (38%) versus a Raiders OL allowing sacks on 8.1% of dropbacks. Against the run, Denver allows 3.8 YPC (6th). The Raiders’ defense concedes 5.2 YPP and pressures at 22%. In the red zone, Denver’s defense closes at 71% stop rate versus Las Vegas at 58%. Turnover tilt: Broncos +0.8 per game vs. Raiders -0.4. Profiles like Denver’s typically hold division foes around 17 points, which pairs with a modest total.
Situational & Game Flow Notes
On a short week, rhythm and depth matter. Denver owns time of possession (32:18 vs. 27:42), longer average drives (5.8 plays vs. 5.2), and better two-minute efficiency (68% vs. 45%). Altitude historically adds a small November edge. Pace (DEN 28.2 sec/play; LV 29.8) suggests the Broncos can steer the tempo.
Market & Total Context
Denver is 3–1 ATS as a home favorite; Las Vegas is 1–3 ATS as a road dog. Unders have landed in 6 of 9 Denver games and 5 of 8 Raiders games. AFC West Thursdays have averaged 38.2 points over five seasons. The move from -9.5 to -8.0 shows some sharp interest in Las Vegas at the number, but the efficiency edge still leans Denver.