Game Details
Atlanta Falcons (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs Minnesota Vikings (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)
NFL Week 14
Date/Time: December 8, 1:00 PM ET
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
TV: [Broadcast Info Pending]
Betting Odds
- Point Spread: Minnesota -6 / Atlanta +6
- Moneyline: Minnesota -250 / Atlanta +200
- Total: 46.0 (O/U)
Game Overview
The Minnesota Vikings are poised to continue their dominance at home as they take on the struggling Atlanta Falcons. Minnesota enters with a 10-2 record and has been outstanding at home (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS). Atlanta, despite leading the NFC South at 6-6, is faltering, having lost three straight games overall, including their last two on the road.
A matchup problem looms large for Atlanta: Minnesota boasts the NFL's best rush defense (81.3 YPG allowed, 3.7 YPC). The Falcons rely heavily on their ground game to keep Kirk Cousins in manageable situations, but against this defensive front, Cousins will likely be forced into a pass-heavy game—a scenario that has spelled disaster recently.
Kirk Cousins has been a turnover machine, throwing 6 interceptions in his last 3 games, including 4 picks in a 13-17 loss to the Chargers. However, the Vikings' defense and special teams continue to bail out their offense, giving them enough to cover here.
Key Matchups & Analysis
1. Atlanta's Rushing Struggles vs Minnesota's Rush Defense
Minnesota's defense ranks 1st in rushing yards allowed (81.3 YPG) and 3rd in yards per carry allowed (3.7). Atlanta averages a respectable 117.8 rushing yards per game but will struggle to establish anything on the ground. If the Falcons can't run, it all falls on Kirk Cousins—who has proven erratic under pressure.
2. Minnesota's Pass Rush Against Kirk Cousins
The Vikings' pass rush is elite, ranking 2nd in sacks per game (3.2). Cousins, already struggling with turnovers, will be under constant pressure. Minnesota's defense also excels in interceptions, leading the league with 1.5 picks per game. Cousins' struggles against quality defenses will likely continue here.
3. Vikings' Home Dominance
Minnesota has been a force at U.S. Bank Stadium, going 5-1 SU and ATS at home. Their defense allows just 18.2 points per game (5th) and thrives on forcing turnovers and controlling tempo. Against a Falcons team trending downward, Minnesota has a clear edge.
4. Atlanta's Offensive Woes
Atlanta's offense has struggled mightily during their three-game losing streak, averaging just 12 points per game over that span. With the run game neutralized and Cousins forced to throw, Atlanta's path to success is extremely narrow.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota: 5-1 ATS at home this season.
- Atlanta: 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games and 0-3 SU overall.
- Minnesota Defense: 6th in yards per play allowed (5.4).
- Total Trends: Both teams are 4-8 to the Under this season, reflecting strong defenses and inconsistent offenses.
Betting Pick and Rationale
Minnesota is the play at -6. The Vikings' elite rush defense will completely shut down Atlanta's ground attack, forcing Kirk Cousins into uncomfortable passing situations. Given his struggles and Minnesota's top-tier pass rush and ball-hawking secondary, turnovers will be a factor. Meanwhile, Minnesota's defense and home-field dominance will prove too much for Atlanta to overcome.
Final Prediction: Minnesota 27, Atlanta 13
Betting Pick: Vikings -6