Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
When: Sunday, September 8th at 1:00 PM EST
Watch: FOX
Betting Odds
Spread: Atlanta Falcons -4
Total: Over/Under 42.5
This Week 1 matchup features two teams with major changes at quarterback, but the Atlanta Falcons appear to have the edge going into the game. The Falcons have upgraded at the QB position, while the Pittsburgh Steelers face uncertainty as both teams adjust to new signal-callers. Let's break down why the Falcons -4 look like the best bet in this game.
Quarterback Situation
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers are dealing with uncertainty at quarterback. Russell Wilson is coming off a down year, and there are questions about his availability for Week 1 due to injuries. Even if Wilson starts, his transition into a new system under the Steelers' offense presents challenges. In addition, Justin Fields was brought in from Chicago, and while he brings mobility and playmaking ability, he too is learning a new offense. Both quarterbacks are working to adapt, and the lack of continuity could hinder the Steelers' offensive performance early in the season.
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons, on the other hand, made a significant upgrade at quarterback by bringing in Kirk Cousins from the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins is a proven veteran who has thrived in systems with strong offensive weapons, and Atlanta offers just that. With a deep wide receiver group and an excellent run game led by Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson, Cousins should find immediate success in this offense. His familiarity with quick-read passing schemes makes Atlanta a much more dangerous and balanced team.
Offensive Comparison
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh's offense faces challenges with instability at the QB position and an offensive line that has struggled to protect its quarterbacks in the past. They’ll need significant improvement in the passing game, and if Russell Wilson can’t play, Justin Fields will be forced to step up in his first game with the team. While Fields offers mobility, Pittsburgh’s run game is likely to see a lot of attention from Atlanta’s defense.
Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta boasts a dynamic offense with Kirk Cousins at the helm. Their wide receiver corps, including Drake London and Kyle Pitts, is one of the best in the league. The Falcons also have a strong running game, which will open up play-action opportunities for Cousins. Given Pittsburgh’s lack of defensive consistency in recent years, Atlanta’s balanced offense should be able to move the ball effectively through both the air and on the ground.
Defensive Comparison
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers' defense has been their strong suit in recent years, but it’s hard to say whether they can fully carry this team with so many questions on offense. They were susceptible to big plays through the air last season, and against a passer like Cousins, who excels in mid-range throws, they could be in for a long afternoon.
Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta’s defense is coming off a season where they showed improvements, especially in their run defense. They’ll focus on containing Pittsburgh’s ground game and forcing whichever quarterback plays to throw the ball. With Pittsburgh’s passing game in flux, the Falcons’ defensive front should be able to pressure the Steelers into mistakes.
Betting and Trends
Spread: Atlanta is favored by 4 points. The Falcons have performed well at home, going 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games. On the other hand, the Steelers have been solid on the road, but their quarterback situation raises significant concerns.
Total Points: The total is set at 42.5, reflecting expectations of a low-scoring game. Pittsburgh's defensive strengths and offensive uncertainties align with an under, while Atlanta's offense could still put up points, especially if they can exploit Pittsburgh’s passing defense.
Game Outlook
Atlanta Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense: Atlanta’s upgraded passing game with Kirk Cousins at quarterback and a deep receiving corps will test Pittsburgh’s secondary. With Atlanta’s balanced approach, they will be able to stretch Pittsburgh’s defense both horizontally and vertically. The Falcons also have a strong running game that can keep Pittsburgh’s defensive line off-balance, allowing Cousins to exploit play-action opportunities. Given the uncertainty at quarterback for Pittsburgh, Atlanta’s offense has the edge.
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Atlanta Defense: Whether it’s Wilson or Fields under center, the Steelers' offense faces an uphill battle. Both quarterbacks are still learning the system, and the lack of continuity in the passing game will likely limit their production. If Pittsburgh leans on their rushing attack, Atlanta’s defense is well-equipped to handle it, thanks to a solid run-stopping unit. Unless Pittsburgh can establish rhythm early, they are likely to struggle to keep up with the Falcons.
Prediction
The Falcons’ superior quarterback situation and offensive depth make them the better team heading into Week 1. With Kirk Cousins at the helm and a more stable offensive system, they should be able to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is still trying to sort out its quarterback situation. Look for Atlanta to control the pace of the game and cover the 4-point spread.
Final score prediction: Atlanta Falcons 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 17.
