NFL Betting: Preseason Signs That a Team Will Cover

NFL Betting: Preseason Signs That a Team Will Cover Spreads

By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

At the beginning of the NFL season, it's not a bad idea to scout teams along the general lines of \whether or not they will have good value in the upcoming season. A lot of teams will fall somewhere in the middle. But there usually is a large group of teams that will either be over or undervalued. Let's look at some of the potential signs that a team will be undervalued.

For a team to be underrated, some elements need to be in place. Not all of them are very promising. Just remember that as NFL bettors, we're not looking to decide what team is going to the Super Bowl unless we're placing a futures bet. Otherwise, we're looking to cover spreads. Some of the things that allow a team to cover spreads are not things you want to see as a fan.

Look for a team that had a deceivingly-bad record in the previous season. When you see a team was 5-11, that could mean a few different things. Maybe that team was truly awful, won all of its 5 games by very close margins, and was blown out in most of its losses. Then you could easily have a 5-11 team that lost a slew of games by narrow margins. A few of their losses were on complete flukes or bad calls. A few twists go the other way, that team can easily be 10-6.

Look for low-key changes in personnel that could make a big difference. When it comes to offseason player moves, what gets the most attention are the quarterbacks or skill guys changing teams. Or where the hotshot college quarterbacks went. A lot of time, not enough attention will be paid to lower-profile player moves. Look for teams that quietly solidified their secondary. Maybe their interior D-line will be tougher against the run. Look for offensive lines that made a big jump up in quality.

A good sign in an against-the-spread sense is when a team actually loses certain glamor players. That might run counter to everything you know to be true about football. No one is saying losing key stars from a team is a good thing for that team's championship possibilities. But when looking to cover an inordinate amount of spreads, we look for different things than what fans want. Often times when a team loses some highly-visible players, the stock drops too far and the betting public is too quick to write off that team.

In football, sometimes watched water never boils. In other words, a team may never seem to fill its potential when the expectations are very high. Then when the eyes of a nation are diverted somewhere else, that team actually thrives. The bad influence of pressure can really resonate with athletes, even at this level. They don't play as well and certainly don't cover a ton of spreads, with the number being inflated by the high expectations.

In the NFL, bad offseason publicity might be good for that team's value in the upcoming season. A fan doesn't want to hear negativity pouring out concerning their team, but it can lead to reduced public confidence, which is a main precursor for getting good betting value. When members of the general betting public only hear bad things all spring and summer, it leaves them assuming that team is in big trouble in an against-the-spread sense, which might not be the case.

BET ON NFL FOOTBALL FROM HOME! DEPOSIT $100 AND GET $100 FREE AT ONE OF THE WEB'S OLDEST SPORTSBOOKS: BOVADA SPORTSBOOK

This doesn't mean that everything that looks like doo-doo is a diamond in the rough. Sometimes junk is junk. What we want to do is look between the lines and see if there isn't some silver lining in the black clouds. For example, maybe a team lost a key player, but you suspect his replacement will be as good if not better. In other words, not every piece of bad news will end up producing bad results.

With teams where everything looks great, where is the betting value? A team made all the right moves in the offseason and signed big names. Their draft is filled with celebrated college players. They proved they were good in the previous season. Everyone will be looking for teams like this to have a good year. To make it in NFL betting, we have to sometimes force ourselves to look a little more off-the-grid for good value.

SAVE BIG MONEY BY BETTING AT -105 REDUCED ODDS!
Quit wasting your hard earned money! Make the switch from -110 to -105 odds today
You'll be so glad that you did! Click Here!
DOCS

NFL Betting

Reduced Juice – Loot explains how reduced odds football betting works and where you can find this valuable asset.

What is a Point Spread? – Many new to the game struggle to understand why one side has a (+) while the other has a (-) in front of a team. We explain what the spread is and how it works.

Football Bets – All the different types of wagers that you can make when betting on football games.

What Professional Handicappers Do – Learn the tricks of the trade and increase your odds of beating the books!

Key Numbers – The article that bookies don’t want you to read!

NFL Betting Quiz – Test your football wagering prowess with Loot’s 10 question quiz!

Super Bowl 52 Predictions – Loot gives his preseason picks for which teams are most likely to win “the big game” along with middle of the road and a longshot that is sure to surprise you!

NFL Season Wins Predictions – Loot breaks down every team and gives his opinion on how they’ll do vs. the number!

NFL Bye Weeks – The first set start in Week 5 and the final byes take place in Week 11.

NFL Coaching Changes – We seem to be in an era where football coaches become disposable in an instant if they don’t win. Check out who went where right here!

Misc.

Famous Football Players – Biographies of the best and greatest NFL football players of all-time.

Greatest NFL Players of All Time – A list of all time greats at each position. Each position has it’s own dedicated article!

Best Quarterbacks of All Time – Joe Montana heads our list of top 10 QB’s, however, Tom Brady is a sure bet to give him a run for his money by the time his career is said and done.

Best Running Backs of All Time – We list the top 10 greatest ball carriers of all-time. The order may be debatable, as Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton all brought something special to the gridiron.

Football Lingo – One must be very familiar with all of the terms, slang and jargon associated with this game to win at football betting. Find a slew of pigskin terminology right here!

Football Quotes – Funny and memorable sayings from around the National Football League including comments made by Vince Lombardi and John Madden.