Where: Met Life Stadium
When:Thursday, September 19,. 2024, 8:15pm
Watch: NBC
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Jets -6
Over/Under: 37.5
The Patriots and Jets meet on Thursday night, and with New England’s offensive line banged up and a conservative game plan likely in store, betting on the Under 37.5 total points could be the best move.
1. New England’s Offensive Line is Battered
The Patriots enter this game with every single starting offensive lineman carrying a questionable status. That spells trouble for their already conservative offense, which has struggled to score points through two games. Even if a few linemen play, they’ll be far from 100%, which could mean quick throws, short yardage plays, and more punts. Jacoby Brissett won’t have time to stretch the field, leading to a slow, methodical approach.
2. Thursday Night Football = Vanilla Game Plan
Thursday games tend to favor simple game plans due to the short turnaround. Expect both teams to focus on running the ball, controlling the clock, and limiting mistakes. The Jets and Patriots both have tendencies to play conservatively in these situations, which reduces the chances of a high-scoring shootout. It’s not just a trend—it’s a reality of Thursday Night Football.
3. Both Teams Have a History of Low Scoring
These two teams have consistently played low-scoring games. In fact, seven of their last eight matchups at MetLife Stadium have gone under the total. Recent scores like 17-3, 15-10, and 10-3 suggest that another low-scoring game is highly probable. Neither team is known for explosive offense, and history tells us this game could be another slog.
4. New England’s Defense is Still a Strength
New England’s defense has been strong this season, allowing just 16.5 points per game. Despite a beat-up offense, their defense has managed to keep games close, forcing opponents to grind out long drives without giving up big plays. The Jets’ offense, while improved, is unlikely to break this defense down consistently.
5. Jets’ Offensive Inconsistency and Turnovers
The Jets have shown flashes of offensive potential but have struggled with consistency. They've turned the ball over three times in two games and are prone to mistakes against disciplined defenses like New England’s. If New York can’t finish drives, this game could easily stay under the 37.5-point mark.
Conclusion: The Under is the Play
Between New England’s injuries, the Thursday night factor, and the history of low-scoring matchups between these teams, the Under 37.5 looks like the smart bet. Expect punts, field goals, and clock-chewing drives that keep the total under control.