New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Point Spread – Pick

New England Patriots (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS)
Week 10 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday Night Football, November 12, 2017 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper,

Point Spread: NE -7.5/DEN +7.5
Over/Under Total: 46.5

The New England Patriots come to Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football. New England got a bye last week, following four straight wins after a 2-2 start to get to 6-2. It appears they have managed to right the ship, but they face a tricky road test in their first game back. In their win before the break, they beat the Chargers. 21-13, at home. They now visit the Broncos, who have seen the 2017 season get sideways with four straight losses, including a rough 51-23 loss to the Eagles on Sunday. After a 3-1 start to the season, it’s hard to find the silver lining for the Broncos heading into week 10.

Hats off to the Pats for getting their act together when it looked like they had taken a step back through 4 games. They were relying on Tom Brady and the aerial game, with the run-game and defense looking pretty ragged to start the season. They have gotten some of that in order, but now face a trying part to the season. This is the first of a 6-game stretch where they will take to the road in five of those weeks. So while they have gotten off to a good start and appear to be rolling pretty well at the moment, this next stretch of games will test their mettle and show where the 2017 Patriots really stand.

The Patriots’ offense is still one of the best in the league, among the tops of the charts in total yards and passing offense. In addition, we’ve seen the ground-game begin to take hold. In eight games, Brady is over 2500 yards with 16 TD passes and just two picks. He has completed exactly 2/3 of his throws on the season. He has connected well with a variety of targets in Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, RB James White, and Chris Hogan, who is out with a shoulder injury. On the ground, White, Mike Gillislee, and Dion Lewis have been useful. For the Pats, their ability to convert production into actual points this season hasn’t been great, but the whole team has looked better in this 4-game winning streak.

The Patriots’ defense is a mixed bag. On one hand, they have been leaky this season. At times, it has been a veritable feeding frenzy for opposing quarterbacks who have tacked on 2474 yards on the Pats’ defense through eight games. Against the run, they have also suffered at times this season. Still, in their 4-game win streak, they have given up a total of 51 points. After a big play by the Chargers in their last game early in the game, they allowed a scant six points for the remainder of the game. After getting D’onta Hightower back, he has now been lost for the season, which hurts. Offseason moves made in the secondary haven’t really resonated and though the overall defensive effort has been strong over the past month, they remain a somewhat-vulnerable group—at least by Patriots’ standards.

The Broncos need to find answers quickly. With things getting out of hand, they have seen both sides of the ball fall off in recent weeks with increased urgency not really resonating. They have switched quarterbacks, with Brock Osweiler finding his way back to the Denver starting gig. His first game back was far from impressive. Making it worse is that their defense seems to be suffering with two rotten showings in a row and a general lack of the typical Denver fire on “D.” The one area of hope is that after three straight games on the road, being at home could be a way to see things go a bit better.


He may have been a little rusty, but Osweiler was off-the-mark on Sunday. He was 19-for-38 for 208 yards with a touchdown and two picks. With 7 points coming on a defensive score, the offense was off-the-mark for much of the day. Osweiler hit Demaryius Thomas for a TD in the lone highlight for the offense. After taking an early 3-0 lead, they were never in the game. CJ Anderson, Jamaal Charles, or Devontae Booker were not able to spark a run game. After missing time, Emmanuel Sanders is working his way back into form. There is hope, but through eight games and especially in this 4-game losing streak, they appear to be winging it a bit on this side of the ball.

Philadelphia does have an explosive offense and Denver is not the first defense they have exploited this season, but one would expect more from this Broncos bunch. Wentz threw for four touchdown and they were generally run over by the Eagles’ ground-game. Normally, you take rankings with a grain of salt, as they can lead you astray. But it is striking that they are in the top-five in both run and pass defense, yet are near the bottom of the league in points allowed. They just haven’t been very clutch this season and this recent 4-game losing streak seems to have zapped them of their pep.

Again, Denver can be a different animal at home. Anything that’s happened that was good for Denver this year has taken place at Mile High. After three straight road games, look for them to be a better this week. But how much better? Granted, they have a lot of recent history with the Pats, but New England has managed to remain an elite team, while Denver has receded over the past two seasons. I see the Pats having their way on Sunday.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the New England Patriots plus 7.5 points. Bet the New England vs. Denver game for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!

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