Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Date and Time: November 17, 2024, at 1:00 PM ET
Odds Block
| Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -6.0 (-110) | Over 39.5 (-110) | -250 |
| Tennessee | +6.0 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-110) | +200 |
Lead-In: Why the Over is the Play
Sunday's matchup between Minnesota and Tennessee sets up as a prime opportunity for a high-scoring affair. Minnesota’s offense has been productive, averaging 24.6 points per game, while Tennessee’s defense has allowed 26.7 points per game, ranking 29th in the league. With both teams capable of generating big plays, here’s why the Over 39.5 is the sharp pick.
1. Minnesota’s Dynamic Offense
Led by quarterback Sam Darnold, Minnesota has consistently moved the ball, ranking 13th in the league with 343.6 total yards per game. Their passing game averages 223.3 yards per game (11th), and they are among the best in explosive plays, with a league-leading 11.1 yards per completion.
2. Tennessee’s Struggling Defense
Tennessee’s defense has been porous, allowing an average of 26.7 points per game. They rank 29th in points allowed and 31st in yards per punt return, giving Minnesota excellent field position opportunities to capitalize on.
3. Red Zone Efficiency from Both Teams
Minnesota has converted 60% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, while Tennessee’s offense, despite their struggles, has shown the ability to finish drives against weaker defenses. Combined, this points to both teams hitting the scoreboard often.
4. Weaknesses in Tennessee’s Secondary
Tennessee’s pass defense ranks last in the league, giving up 156.7 passing yards per game. Expect Darnold to exploit this with his array of weapons, particularly downfield threats that can lead to quick scores.
5. Trends Favoring the Over
The Over has hit in 3 of Minnesota’s last 5 games, including high-scoring affairs against Detroit and Green Bay. With Tennessee allowing over 30 points in multiple games this season, another shootout is likely.
Gary G's Pick
Gary G’s Pick: Over 39.5
Both teams’ defensive weaknesses, coupled with Minnesota’s efficient offense, make the Over 39.5 a strong play. Tennessee’s inability to stop the pass will give Minnesota plenty of scoring chances, while the Titans should find ways to contribute on the scoreboard. At such a low total, expect this game to easily exceed expectations.