Game Details
Miami Dolphins (8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS) vs. New York Jets (4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS)
Week 18 NFL
Date/Time: January 5, 2025, 4:25 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV: CBS
Betting Odds
- Point Spread: Dolphins -1.0 (-110) | Jets +1.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dolphins -115 | Jets -105
- Over/Under Total: 38.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
Game Overview
This matchup between AFC East rivals has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Aaron Rodgers, sitting on 499 career touchdown passes, will have his full complement of receivers in a game with extra emotional weight. With rumors swirling that this could be his final game, Rodgers could take a “bombs away” approach against a Miami secondary missing key veteran CB Kyle Fuller.
On the other side, the Dolphins have weapons in Tyreek Hill (expected to play) and De'Von Achane, even if QB Tua Tagovailoa doesn't suit up. Backup Tyler Huntley is capable of managing the offense and exploiting the Jets' secondary, which is missing CB Sauce Gardner.
Key Matchups
Jets Offense vs. Dolphins Defense
Rodgers has averaged 266 passing yards per game over his last five outings and is poised to attack a banged-up Miami secondary. Without Fuller, Miami's secondary will lean heavily on Jalen Ramsey, leaving exploitable matchups for WR Garrett Wilson and TE Tyler Conklin.
Dolphins Offense vs. Jets Defense
The absence of Sauce Gardner is a significant blow to New York's defense, making it easier for Tyreek Hill to stretch the field. Even if Huntley starts for Miami, the Dolphins have enough offensive firepower to capitalize on big-play opportunities. Miami's offensive line has held up well in pass protection, giving their QB time to find Hill and their secondary receivers.
Factors Supporting the Over
- Rodgers' Milestone Drive: Sitting on 499 career touchdown passes, Rodgers will push the ball aggressively in an attempt to hit 500. His willingness to air it out should lead to big plays.
- Defensive Injuries: Miami's secondary is without Kyle Fuller, and New York's defense is missing Sauce Gardner. Both teams have vulnerabilities that can be exploited in the passing game.
- Explosive Weapons: Tyreek Hill for Miami and Garrett Wilson for New York are game-breakers capable of turning routine plays into touchdowns.
- Pace and Motivation: With Rodgers potentially playing his final game, expect an emotional, fast-paced approach from the Jets' offense.
Trends to Watch
- Jets Overs: New York is 7-3 to the Over in their last 10 games, fueled by inconsistent defensive performances.
- Dolphins Overs: Miami is 6-4 to the Over in their last 10 games and has scored 29+ points in three of their last five outings.
- Head-to-Head Trends: The Over has hit in 2 of the last 3 matchups between these teams.
Betting Pick and Rationale
With Aaron Rodgers aiming for a historic milestone and playing with an emotional edge, expect the Jets to push the tempo and take risks downfield. Miami's offense, even with Huntley under center, has enough explosiveness in Tyreek Hill and their run game to respond in kind.
The combination of motivated offenses, weakened secondaries, and big-play potential makes the Over the clear play.
Pick: Over 38.5
Projected Score: Jets 27, Dolphins 23
This matchup promises fireworks, with Rodgers chasing history and Miami's playmakers set to capitalize on defensive lapses. Expect points aplenty at MetLife Stadium.