Los Angeles Rams (14-3 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS)
NFC Conference Championship
Date/Time: January 20, 2019 at 3:05PM EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: LAR +3/NO -3
Over/Under Total: 57
The Los Angeles Rams face the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship game on Sunday at the Superdome. The LA Rams looked every bit the part of a Super Bowl contender with their 30-22 win on Saturday over a red-hot Dallas team that had won seven of their last eight games. Their high-powered offense did its part, while the “D” kept things in-order. There is no questioning whether they are legit, as they will not be easy to dissuade in this spot. But the Saints are at home, coming off a divisional round playoff win over the defending champion Eagles, 20-14. They are the top-seed in the conference and look to show why this weekend. Who comes out ahead in this NFC title game?
In week nine, these two teams met in the Superdome, with the Saints posting a 45-35 win at home. The Rams were able to unleash a big aerial attack, with Jared Goff near 400 yards, but Drew Brees and the Saints took to the air, as well, with a little most push in the run-game to tip things in their favor. The conditions have changed and it's iffy how much this game really matters in the big picture. But for those who use it as justification that this might be a high-scoring and competitive affair, that might not be entirely off-base.
The Rams are a handful. The offense wields so many different weapons and approaches that opposing defenses are left in a tizzy. And while their big-name and high-money defense may have underwhelmed in the regular season in spots, they still have massive playmaking ability and we saw some of that against Dallas in the divisional round. The season ended a bit unevenly for the Rams, as they slipped in a few big tests, before getting their act together at the end of the season. After getting their postseason bearings against Dallas in a nice win, one should expect them to ratchet it up a notch this week, as the Super Bowl is within grasp.
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On Saturday, the versatility of the Rams' approach was on full-display. Jared Goff connects on every type of pass—screens, short throws, intermediate throws, and downfield tosses. Receivers Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks are clutch and can make the difficult catches, while doing a little of the dirty work, as well. Receivers take handoffs, as well, giving the Rams yet another wrinkle. Todd Gurley is one of the best backs in the league and ran for 115 and a TD against Dallas. But the performance of CJ Anderson gives them a little underdog appeal, as well. He ran for 123 yards and two scores on Saturday, as the Rams' run-game was in full-bloom. That line just moves hordes of people and is one of the better units in the league. This offense has everything. They have shown this season that they don't fire automatically regardless of the conditions, but they're pretty darn reliable and at or near their best they're very hard to stop.
Again, the Rams' defense has caught a lot of flack this season. And in all fairness, they were not the unit some envisioned with all the big-name acquisitions. But on Saturday, we saw them looking pretty good, with some of those big-names delivering with Ndamukong Suh, Aqib Talib, and Marcus Peters making plays. Aaron Donald is a difference-maker up-front. There are mistakes on this side of the ball at a higher clip than some groups. The secondary is prone to getting burnt or suffering painful penalties. The massive power of their front has strangely not manifested in an effective way against the opposing run, as they can be leaky against the rush. But this is where these guys make their money and last Saturday, we saw a lot of good signs, with a lot of guys stepping up with big and timely plays.
The Saints did what they needed to do against a red-hot Eagles' bunch on Sunday. It wasn't the best Saints' performance, but it was enough. The “D” showed their teeth at home, playing a big role in the win. Going back to the regular season, they failed to eclipse 20 points for the third time in four games. Facing a Rams' team that put up 35 against them in the regular season, they will likely need more than that this week.
The Saints' offense is a lot like the Rams' offense. Anchored by an effective line, the Saints can run the heck out of the ball with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Both were instrumental on Sunday in helping the Saints overcome an early 14-0 deficit. Brees threw for over 300 yards, connecting well with WR Michael Thomas, who caught 12 balls for 171 yards and a score. Dormant for most of the season, Ted Ginn, Jr. is available and starting to pay off in the postseason. At home against an exploitable Rams' defense that they scored 45 points against earlier in the season, we could see things come together better for the Saints' offense this week.
Granted, the Eagles' run-game isn't great, but they got very little against the Saints on Sunday, which has been customary this season. That looms as a matchup-concern for the Rams this week, as running the ball might not come as easy. The Saints made a lot of big plays on Sunday, highlighted by CB Marshon Lattimore's two picks. The magic of Philly QB Nick Foles was held to a minimum, with the secondary playing very well. The way this Saints' defense is playing right now, it's one of the best New Orleans defenses seen in years.
This is not an easy one to call. Both teams are hungry to get to the big game, as each franchise poured a lot into this season's effort. I see that reflecting on Sunday with a competitive game between teams with a lot on the line. Again, it's not clear how much their regular season matchup matters, but I see this road spot against the Saints being a tough element of this game for the LA defense. I'm taking the Saints.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the New Orleans Saints minus 3 points. Did you know… that you could be wagering on the Rams vs. Saints NFC title game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to BetAnySports Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!