Date: October 20, 2024
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Betting Odds: Minnesota -2.5, O/U 50.5, Moneyline: Minnesota -135, Detroit +115
Lead-In
The Detroit Lions (4-1) travel to face the undefeated Minnesota Vikings (5-0) in a crucial NFC North matchup. Both teams boast strong records against the spread (ATS), but with defensive strengths on both sides, this game could favor the Under 50.5, even with their offensive capabilities.
Betting Odds and Recent Form
| Team | Record | ATS | Offense (PPG) | Defense (PPG) | OU Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 4-1 | 4-1 | 30.20 | 18.20 | 2-3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 5-0 | 5-0 | 27.80 | 15.20 | 1-4 |
Key Stats to Support the Under
- Defensive Rankings: Both teams rank in the top 10 in points allowed per game, with Minnesota allowing just 15.2 PPG (4th) and Detroit close behind at 18.2 PPG (10th).
- Detroit's Road Defense: The Lions allow just 17 points per game in their last three games, and they excel in run defense, allowing 77 rushing yards per game on the road (4th in the league).
- Under Trends: Minnesota's games have gone Under in 8 of their last 11 home games. Detroit's defensive ability to control tempo and their 2-3 O/U record further supports this trend.
- Yards Per Point Differential: Minnesota's defensive efficiency (21.76 yards allowed per point) ranks among the best in the league, showing they force opponents to work hard for every score.
Injury Impact and Game Script
Detroit Lions: With Jared Goff playing well (11.8 yards per pass attempt), Detroit's offense will face a tough challenge against Minnesota’s elite pass defense. Expect the Lions to focus on their ground game, where they average 157.8 rushing yards per game (4th in the NFL).
Minnesota Vikings: Despite a potent offense, the Vikings have relied on defense to win close games. Their passing defense is ranked low, but they give up only 67.2 rushing yards per game (2nd), which could limit Detroit’s ability to control the clock.
Power Stats Comparison
| Stat | Detroit (Rank) | Minnesota (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| Yards per Point (Offense) | 13.77 (17th) | 11.63 (4th) |
| Yards per Point (Defense) | 18.1 (5th) | 21.76 (1st) |
| Yards per Pass (Offense) | 11.84 (4th) | 11.81 (5th) |
| Yards per Pass (Defense) | 9.47 (17th) | 9.48 (18th) |
| Yards per Rush (Offense) | 4.78 (8th) | 4.06 (15th) |
| Yards per Rush (Defense) | 4.16 (9th) | 3.61 (5th) |
Prediction
Both defenses have been performing at elite levels, making it likely that this game will fall under the 50.5 total. Detroit’s ability to limit big plays combined with Minnesota’s solid home defense sets the stage for a low-scoring, grind-it-out NFC North battle. Take the UNDER 50.5