Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants Point Spread – Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. New York Giants (1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS)
Week 11 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 19, 2017 at 1PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: KC -10/NYG +10
Over/Under Total: 44.5

The Kansas City Chiefs come to East Rutherford on Sunday for a week 11 matchup with the New York Giants. The Chiefs are coming off a rough 28-17 loss to Dallas, which was followed by the bye week. After a 5-0 start, they have lost 3 of 4 and are looking to start stockpiling the wins again. They come off the bye week with a cross-conference road spot, but a winnable one against the Giants. On Sunday, the Giants came up short on the road, becoming the first team to lose to the 49ers this season in a bad 31-21 loss. They are now 1-8 and a season where many suspected a deep playoff run is already a lost cause through just 9 games.

For the Chiefs, a wait-and-see approach might be needed. It’s hasty to say the shine is off, but some things that were more-camouflaged as they were pouring it on offensively have moved more plainly into sight in the last month. One of those things is a defense that has become readily-exploitable, both through the air and on the ground. The defense has had some setbacks in the injury department that have perhaps started to resonate badly. Some of their playmakers on offense have quieted some and they seem to have lost the edge that characterized their first five games of play this season. After the break, they look to rediscover their flair this week.

Alex Smith has been excellent this season. At nearly 70% completions with 18 touchdowns and just one pick, he’s done everything he is supposed to do and then some. Tight end Travis Kelce has been big in recent weeks, with Tyreek Hill adding a reliable and game-changing target. Running back Kareem Hunt, however has started to fade. With 609 yards rushing in his first five games, he has just 191 in his last four games. There have been injuries up-front and maybe with better health, they can start doing a better job insulating Smith from the opposing pass-rush, while springing the run-game a little better.

The big issue facing Kansas City’s overall prospects this season is where their defense goes from here. Even last season when the Chiefs were 12-4, the defense wasn’t that stout. But they were clutch, making a lot of big plays and playing really well late in the games. We haven’t seen much of that in the past month. Justin Houston has 7.5 sacks and has been big in spots, but they need others around him to get after the quarterback, as well. In the secondary, guys like Marcus Peters are making some plays, but they need better coverage. Having S Ron Parker back should help, but the secondary hasn’t been that good this season.

Normally, even a bad Giants home at home would need to be respected, but where are the Giants going into week 11? Losing to the winless 49ers by ten is another bad development for a team that has seen almost nothing go their way this season. Eli Manning again started for the Giants, despite murmurings that they would look to see that they have with Davis Webb. Late in the second quarter, the Giants held a 13-10 lead, before the offense went into hibernation with some big plays from the San Francisco offense tipping things in their favor. There just hasn’t been a lot of good news coming from this team this season. There were rumblings that coach Ben McAdoo had lost the team and while that might not exactly be the case, the opposite certainly isn’t the case, either. It’s hard to remember a team falling off so dramatically.

You don’t want to say Eli Manning had a good game when the Giants lose by ten to a winless team. But he was better, at least statistically, with 273 yards and two touchdowns and no picks on 28-for-37 passing. He connected well with Sterling Shepard, who caught 11 balls for 142 yards, Manning also hit Roger Lewis and Evan Engram with touchdown passes. And Orleans Darkwa has been able to step up with some good games lately, as he had 70 yards receiving on Sunday. It’s not all Manning’s fault how things worked out this season. The line has been dicey and that’s putting it kindly, with a ton of injuries to the receiving crew.

Less clear is what has happened to the Giants’ defense this season. Last year, a bunch of offseason moves seemed to really resonate well. This season has seen some injury issues and other personnel problems, but it’s still strange how they eroded into one of the worst defenses in the league through nine games. It’s not often you see a defense struggle equally as bad against the pass and the run, but the Giants have managed it so far this year. And it’s a lot of the same guys from last season, which makes it all the more strange. Unlike last season, we see this group registering an alarming lack of big plays, whether it’s turnovers or a pass-rush. They seem to be just there taking up space more often than not. And Sunday was again an ugly exhibition from a defense that was so good a short time ago.

The Chiefs haven’t been in great form lately and are coming off the bye-week. This is still not an easy road spot, though they are facing a team that might lack the resolve at this point to spring a surprise. There are guys on that Giants’ sideline with their careers on the line, but that was true last week when they got beaten up by an 0-8 Frisco squad. It’s just that a little caution should be shown when laying a number in a cross-conference road spot, especially when a team has lost three of four. I think the off-time likely helped the Chiefs recharge their batteries and I see a comprehensive win this week. I’m taking Kansas City.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 10 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you’ll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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