Kansas City Chiefs (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)
Week 7 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, October 17, 2019 at 8:20PM EST
Where: Empower Field and Mile High, Denver, Colorado
TV: Fox/NFL
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: KC -3.5/DEN +3.5
Over/Under Total: 50
The Kansas City Chiefs come to Mile High for a week 7 AFC West showdown against the Denver Broncos. Not many would have thought that heading into this matchup, it would be the Broncos who are hot and the Chiefs who are not. But after losing two straight at home no less, the Chiefs are entering a funky period of the season where they need to right the ship. On Sunday, they fell to the Texans, 31-24. Denver, meanwhile, has won two straight after starting the season at 0-4. On Sunday, Denver held down the fort at Mile High with a dominant 16-0 win over the Titans. Who can get the upper hand this week at Mile High?
So what happened? And that question applies to both teams. The Chiefs were looking every bit the part of a Super Bowl favorite through four games. Their fourth win, a narrow win over Detroit, showed some issues, but no one worried too much because they pulled it out late with a win. To lose to Indy at home was eyebrow-raising perhaps, but to follow that with another loss at Arrowhead to the Texans means it's time to start asking some tough questions. Having Patrick Mahomes dinged up doesn't help and having to turn around on the short week after a punishing loss is a big ask. They're not running the ball very well and Mahomes being off-kilter has set the aerial attack a tad askew. A lot of moves were made on defense, with new players and a new coordinator and heading into week 7, it looks as bad as it did at any point last season.
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After going 19-for-35 with 273 and three TDs, the numbers might not paint Mahomes in such a bad light, but watching the game, it's clear that he lacks some of his old effervescence. That's not something you can bank on continuing to see, but it's a cause for definite concern. That offensive line isn't that great and isn't getting better. Not having a great back is starting to show and though LeSean McCoy can still perform, it's going to be on some weeks and off others. Scoring 37 combined points in two home games is just not characteristic of this squad. Between the injuries and deficiencies up front and in the backfield, it's been enough to make the Kansas City offense look ordinary. Getting Tyreek Hill back helps and he looked good, but something is still amiss.
The lack of explosiveness on offense has only brought the problems with the Kansas City defense more to light. On Sunday, they applied almost no pressure to Deshaun Watson. They secured three turnovers and will make plays from time to time, but lack stoutness across all areas. Watson operated with impunity and this “D” even made Carlos Hyde look like an elite back. It's been like that all season and it could be rough against Denver's running-game. The guys they had already who are good like Chris Jones (questionable) have been hurt or not very good, while the guys they got like Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu haven't been able to make a big impact yet.
With 36 points in their last two wins combined, the Denver offense hasn't been on fire, but it's been doing enough. Joe Flacco still has some life left in his legs. The offense won't always deliver, but against the Kansas City secondary, maybe Flacco can make a connection with Courtland Sutton, DaeSean Hamilton, Noah Fant, or a waning Emmanuel Sanders. The 1-2 running back combo punch of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman has been pretty solid. Again, it's not an exciting group. You could even say it's one of the duller offenses in the league. But with the other side of the ball playing well, they've managed to not mess it up.
The Broncos defense sprung to life in a big way over the past two weeks. Giving up a combined 13 points in the last two weeks and shutting out Tennessee says a lot. Granted, the Chargers' offense is not in full-flight, while there is a certain amount of dysfunction amidst with the Titans' offense. Still, with Chris Harris, Jr., Kareem Jackson, Justin Simmons, and others, the secondary has been really good as of late. And despite losing Bradley Chubb, the pass-rush led by Von Miller has continued being effective. And a run-defense that was beleaguered at times early this season has tightened up, keeping both the Chargers and Titans in check the last two weeks.
It's an interesting conundrum. Denver is surging and for whatever it's worth, they played the Chiefs tight twice last season, losing by 7 at Arrowhead and by only four at Mile High. One would expect a pretty urgent Chiefs team this week. A loss to the Broncos would signify at least a mini-crisis. As of now, a lot of teams would like to be 4-2 and in control of their division. So maybe they can start now, stop the bleeding, and get back to the business of being an AFC powerhouse. While I don't think the short week or the altitude helps, I see Kansas City maybe not exploding, but doing enough to stabilize the situation, getting the win and cover in Denver.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 3.5 points. Bet the Kansas City-Denver game for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!
