Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami, FL)
When: Sunday, September 8th at 1:00 PM EST
Watch: CBS
Betting Odds
Spread: Miami Dolphins -3.5
Total: Over/Under 49
This Week 1 matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins features two teams with offensive firepower and defensive questions, making the total of 49 points a prime target for the over bet. Let’s break down why this game could easily surpass the total.
Offensive Comparison
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville closed last season with mixed results offensively but is now entering the year with high expectations for quarterback Trevor Lawrence. They finished the 2023 season strong with several solid passing performances. Lawrence has grown more comfortable in Doug Pederson’s system, and the Jaguars' receiving corps, featuring Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, is poised to excel. Against Miami’s secondary, which allowed 409 yards to Kansas City in the playoffs, Jacksonville should be able to move the ball effectively.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins possess one of the most dangerous offenses in the league, led by Tua Tagovailoa and wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Miami’s passing attack, ranked 5th in home passing yards last season, will face a Jacksonville defense that gave up over 300 yards through the air multiple times last season. Miami also bolstered its running game with the addition of rookie sensation Devon Achane, making them a dual threat.
Defensive Concerns
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville’s defense struggled against the pass last season, ranking 26th in road passing defense. This could be problematic against Miami’s high-flying offense. While their run defense was respectable, the Jaguars’ secondary allowed big plays regularly, which Miami’s explosive playmakers are well-suited to exploit.
Miami Dolphins: Miami’s defense is dealing with uncertainty, particularly in the secondary. Star cornerback Jalen Ramsey is iffy for this game, and even if he plays, he likely won’t be at full strength. The Dolphins' defense allowed 262 passing yards per game in their last five outings and was vulnerable to explosive plays. Jacksonville’s improved passing game should find success.
Recent Trends and Betting Considerations
Total Trends: While historically, these teams have trended towards the under in their matchups, both offenses are poised for a breakout game. Jacksonville went over the total in 3 of their last 5 games last season, and Miami has gone over in high-scoring games, particularly at home.
Key Factor: Explosive Plays: Both teams have game-changing weapons. The Jaguars' Ridley-Kirk tandem and Miami’s Hill-Waddle combo mean big plays are likely. Neither defense has shown consistency in stopping these types of players.
Prediction
This game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. With Jacksonville’s evolving offense and Miami’s explosiveness, both teams should be able to move the ball up and down the field. The defensive vulnerabilities on both sides—especially in the secondary—point to the over being the best bet in this contest.
Final score prediction: Miami Dolphins 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 28 (Total 59).
