Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Date and Time: November 18, 2024, at 8:15 PM ET
Odds Block
| Team | Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | -7.0 (-115) | Over 42.5 (-110) | -350 |
| Dallas | +7.0 (-105) | Under 42.5 (-120) | +280 |
Lead-In: Why Houston -7 is the Best Bet
This cross-conference matchup features a Houston team atop the AFC South facing a Dallas squad missing its star quarterback. With Dak Prescott sidelined, backups Cooper Rush and Trey Lance combined for just 66 passing yards last week. Add in Dallas’ 31st-ranked run defense and Houston WR Nate Collins’ return, and it’s clear Houston is the team to back at -7.
1. Dallas’ Quarterback Troubles
Without Dak Prescott, Dallas turns to Cooper Rush and Trey Lance, who were dreadful last week, combining for just 66 passing yards. Houston’s defense, ranked 15th in yards allowed per game (338.1), is poised to exploit this weakness and keep the Cowboys one-dimensional.
2. Houston’s Balanced Offense
Houston’s offense, averaging 218.7 passing yards (15th) and 119.4 rushing yards (18th) per game, thrives on balance. With Nate Collins returning, C.J. Stroud has his top target back, giving the Texans even more firepower against Dallas’ 30th-ranked pass defense, which allows 210.8 passing yards per game and struggles in coverage.
3. Dallas’ Run Defense Issues
Dallas allows 152.1 rushing yards per game, ranking 31st in the league. Houston’s run game, led by [RB Name], averages 4.2 yards per carry (20th). Expect the Texans to control the clock and exploit Dallas’ inability to stop the run.
4. Houston’s Dominance at Home and Dallas’ Home Struggles
Houston is 4-1 ATS at home this season, while Dallas is 0-4 ATS at home. With this game at AT&T Stadium, Houston’s consistency on the road makes the -7 spread even more appealing.
5. Trends Support Houston
The Texans are 6-4 overall and have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 wins. Meanwhile, Dallas is just 2-6-1 ATS this season, struggling to cover even in favorable matchups. With a banged-up roster and poor defensive performance, Dallas’ trends suggest another failure to cover.
Gary G's Pick
With Nate Collins back and Dallas missing Dak Prescott, this game is all about Houston’s offense and Dallas’ glaring weaknesses. The Texans are positioned to dominate both offensively and defensively, while Dallas lacks the firepower to keep up. Houston -7 is a sharp and confident play in this matchup.
Gary G’s Pick: Houston -7