Houston Texans at New York Jets – NFL Week 9 Betting Pick

NFL Week 9
Date/Time: Thursday, October 31, 2024, at 8:15 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
TV: Amazon Prime Video

Lead-In: The New York Jets aim to capitalize on a depleted Houston Texans offense in this Thursday night NFL Week 9 matchup at MetLife Stadium. With Houston missing key receivers, the Jets’ stout pass defense has the edge. Despite New York's struggles this season, their top-tier defense may be the key to controlling the game, setting up a promising night for Jets backers at -2.5.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: New York -2.5 / Houston +2.5

Money Line: New York -125 / Houston +105

Over/Under Total: 42.5

Game Preview

The Houston Texans, leading the AFC South at 6-2, enter this game following a close win against the Colts, but they’ve been hit hard by injuries. Last week saw top receiver Stefon Diggs go down with a season-ending ACL tear, joining Nico Collins on the injured list. Houston’s offense managed 267 passing yards against the Colts’ lower-tier defense, yet they now face the Jets’ second-ranked pass defense, a much more challenging test.

For the Jets, their strong pass defense allows only 161.1 yards per game, creating a significant advantage against a Houston team that may now need to rely heavily on the run. Joe Mixon has been effective with three straight 100-yard games, but a one-dimensional offense could allow New York’s defense to focus on limiting Mixon, pushing the Texans into difficult passing situations.

Houston Texans (6-2, 1st AFC South)

The Texans have been efficient this season, with C.J. Stroud leading an offense that ranks 10th in total yards and 8th in passing yards per game. However, with the loss of Diggs and Collins, Houston’s offensive structure is severely tested. They’ll lean on the ground game with Joe Mixon, who has been their offensive standout recently. Stroud will need support from a depleted receiving group to avoid a predictable, run-heavy approach.

Defensively, Houston has held opponents to just 21.2 points per game, ranking 12th in the league, but they’ll need a strong showing to stay competitive against a Jets team that plays a conservative, defensive-focused game. Houston’s defense may keep it close, but their offense faces an uphill battle against the Jets' strong secondary.

New York Jets (2-6, 4th AFC East)

The Jets' 2-6 record may not reflect their potential, as their defense has kept them competitive. Ranking second in pass defense, New York allows only 161.1 yards per game through the air, with a secondary capable of shutting down depleted receiving units like Houston’s. This defensive advantage could be the key to controlling Houston’s offense, especially if the Texans rely solely on Mixon in the run game.

While New York’s offense has struggled to produce, they’ve shown flashes of control on the ground and have managed to keep games within reach. The Jets are well-suited to a low-scoring, defense-dominated game and will look to limit Houston’s offensive opportunities.

Key Factors and Betting Angles

Pass Defense Advantage: With a top-ranked secondary, the Jets are in prime position to limit Houston’s passing game, particularly with the Texans missing both Diggs and Collins.

One-Dimensional Houston Offense: Houston may lean on Joe Mixon, but the Jets’ defense can key in on him, making it difficult for Houston to find success without a balanced attack.

Pick: New York Jets -2.5. With Houston’s offense likely to be limited, the Jets’ defense gives them the edge. Back the Jets to cover the -2.5 spread in a low-scoring game where their defensive advantage should prove decisive.

Take the Jets -2.5


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