Green Bay Packers (4-4-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)
Week 11 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, November 15, 2018 at 8:20PM EST
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: GB +2.5/SEA -2.5
Over/Under Total: 49.5
The Green Bay Packers come to CenturyLink Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. It's a nice matchup between two teams that are in limbo. Each team has shown signs of being good, without the results to really go with it. The Packers are in a better situation at 4-4-1 in a division where they are still within reach. For the Seahawks, the situation is a bit direr, with their margin of error narrowing after a 36-31 loss to the Rams on Sunday. The Packers did their part on Sunday, scoring a nice 31-12 win over the Dolphins at home.
Green Bay needs this one if they want to stay within reach of the Bears and Vikings in the NFC North. Both teams have been taking on tough teams and are better than their record suggests. Coming off the bye, the Packers were in both games against the Rams and Patriots the past two weeks, but came up just short. Against the Dolphins on Sunday, we saw both sides of the ball performing well. The defense didn't allow any offensive touchdowns, while keeping the Miami offense off-rhythm all day. The offense did its work, with Aaron Rodgers throwing two touchdowns, while the run-game was productive, as well.
Rodgers has some weapons with which to work on this Green Bay offense. Davante Adams is the top choice, with rising rookie Marquez Valdes-Scantling starting to deliver. Adams had two touchdowns on Sunday and now has nine on the season. Jimmy Graham is still there, though not quite the threat he once was, but there are options aerially, especially if Randall Cobb is back. The growth of the run-game offers hope and a healthy Aaron Jones can be a major factor. On Sunday, he was effective for the third straight game, rushing for a big 145 yards and a pair of TDs. Having that kind of big-play ability from their ground-game could really start paying off as the Packers try to make a late-season move.
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The quality of the offenses they have been playing has perhaps painted the Packers' defense in a bad light, but on Sunday we saw what they can do. Corner Bashaud Breeland had a pick and Tramon Williams recovered a fumble, as the secondary tries to make up for the lost playmaking with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix having departed. They can be very tough against opposing passing-games, which could make problems for Wilson this week. Six different players registered sacks on the day, which they look for more of on Thursday.
It has been hard on the Seahawks the last handful of weeks, with two games against the leading conference contender Rams, in addition to a tough game against the streaking Chargers. Maybe at home against a more-manageable team, they can get better results. It might be fair to say they are better than what their record indicates. If someone saw only their W-L record at this point in the season, they'd think that most of the preseason thoughts on the Seahawks held water. But in reality, there is progress to be seen on both sides of the ball. It's just hard to see when facing the best teams in the league. Again, maybe this spot will give way to a better look for the Seahawks.
The Seattle offense has signs of hope on offense. Their line is playing at a higher level this season, which has helped Russell Wilson stay healthy and less-harassed, while giving rise to a nice run-game. They actually have a surplus of backs now and on Sunday, we saw the first glimpse that maybe Rashaad Penny could be part of the big answer, as he ran for 108 yards and a touchdown. Mike Davis also had some nice runs, while Russell Wilson ran for 92 yards. Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin remain the top dogs in the aerial game, with David Moore and tight ends Nick Vannett and Ed Dickson starting to get more involved.
Again, facing good offenses has made the Seahawks' defense look worse than it really is. It's not the group we have become accustomed to seeing in recent seasons, but that isn't the point. The big youth movement could be arriving ahead of schedule. With Frank Clark, Jarran Reed, and Quinton Jefferson, the front is starting to form an identity. Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright are a force in the middle. The Griffin brothers add a nice storyline and some excellent play, as well. With Tre Flowers, Bradley McDougald, and Tedric Thompson, the secondary has some fire even with the Legion of Boom completely disbanded. After giving up a 300-yard game to Jared Goff and another big day to Todd Gurley, it might seem a strange time to praise a defense. But if that were the measuring stick for grading defenses, a lot of groups would look bad this season. Other than against the Rams, this defense has performed capably in recent weeks. And as we've also seen, even if this “D” falters, the offense is not completely incapable of holding their own in shootouts.
I envision a competitive matchup this week. Again the stakes are high. If you could identify a fork-in-the-road spot for either team this season, this game could very well be it. Another loss and the Packers would need to win a division where there's even more separation between them and the top dog. If Seattle loses, they fall to 4-6 and that's right on the precipice with 6 games left. I see a twist here and a big play there keeping Seattle's nose above water in this one, as they cross the finish line ahead.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Seattle Seahawks minus 2.5 points. Bet the Thursday Night Football game for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!
