Date: Friday, September 6, 2024, 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Sao Paulo, Brazil (Neutral Site)
Odds: Philadelphia -2, Total 48.5
Introduction
The NFL’s international series kicks off with a unique matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles, set to take place in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Both teams had solid seasons last year, with Philadelphia entering this game as a 2-point favorite. With a total set at 48.5 points, this game promises to be competitive. Let’s analyze the stats and find the best angles for bettors.
Odds Breakdown
| Sportsbook | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| MYB | [N/A] | PHI -2 | 48.5 |
| BOL | [N/A] | PHI -2 | 48.5 |
Analysis: Philadelphia is favored by a narrow margin, reflecting the close nature of this matchup. The total of 48.5 points suggests that both offenses will have opportunities to score, but the outcome may hinge on key defensive plays.
Team Overview and Recent Form
| Team | Points/Game | Yards/Game | Points/Play | Yards/Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | 23.8 (#8) | 348.3 (#10) | 0.387 (#7) | 5.7 (#6) |
| Philadelphia | 24.6 (#7) | 350.0 (#9) | 0.379 (#8) | 5.4 (#13) |
Analysis: Both teams have potent offenses, ranking in the top 10 in points per game. Green Bay’s efficiency slightly edges out Philadelphia’s in terms of points per play and yards per play. However, Philadelphia’s ability to score consistently should not be overlooked, making this a tightly contested game.
Power Stats & Metrics
| Metric | Green Bay | Philadelphia | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3D Conversion % | 47.97% (#3) | 46.15% (#5) | +1.82% (GB) |
| Yards/Play Allowed | 5.5 (#25) | 5.4 (#20) | +0.1 (PHI) |
Analysis: Both teams are effective on third downs, with Green Bay holding a slight advantage. Defensively, Philadelphia is slightly better at limiting yards per play, but both teams will need to step up on defense to secure a win in this neutral-site matchup.
Unique Angles for Bettors
- Red Zone Defense: Green Bay allowed touchdowns on 65.00% of opponents’ red zone trips (#29), while Philadelphia was better but still allowed 59.68% (#9). Bettors should monitor whether either team can tighten up in the red zone, as this could influence the game’s total and outcome.
- Turnover Battle: Philadelphia had a +0.6 turnover margin per game (#27), largely due to their ability to avoid giveaways. Green Bay, with a 0.0 turnover margin (#17), will need to force mistakes to shift momentum in their favor.
- Rushing Attack: Philadelphia’s ground game, averaging 124.0 yards per game (#9), could be a key factor against Green Bay’s defense, which allowed 127.1 rushing yards per game (#28). If the Eagles can control the clock and wear down the Packers’ defense, they could dominate the second half.
Smart Chart Analysis
| Metric | Green Bay | Philadelphia | Rank Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp Points/Game | 25.6 (#30) | 21.4 (#13) | Edge to GB |
| Opp Yards/Game | 360.0 (#26) | 345.4 (#22) | Slight Edge GB |
Analysis: While both defenses have vulnerabilities, Green Bay has a slight edge in points allowed per game. However, Philadelphia’s defense was more consistent in limiting yardage, suggesting that Green Bay might need to rely on big plays to succeed.
Head-to-Head Summary
Previous Meetings: Green Bay has won 3 of the last 5 meetings between these teams.
Key Stat: In their last matchup, Philadelphia’s defense struggled to contain Green Bay’s passing attack, allowing over 300 yards through the air.
Analysis: Green Bay has had recent success against Philadelphia, particularly through the passing game. If the Packers can replicate that performance, they could have the upper hand in this contest.
Betting Trends
- Green Bay Packers: 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.
- Philadelphia Eagles: 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.
Analysis: Both teams have performed well in their respective roles, with Green Bay thriving as an underdog and Philadelphia covering as a favorite. This suggests that the game could be close, with the spread potentially coming into play late.
Expert Prediction & Pick
Pick: Green Bay +2
Green Bay’s efficient offense and recent success against Philadelphia make them a strong underdog pick in this matchup. While Philadelphia has the tools to win, the Packers’ ability to generate big plays on offense could tip the scales in their favor. Take the points with Green Bay.
