Game Details
Miami Dolphins (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) vs. Houston Texans (8-5 SU, 5-6-2 ATS)
NFL Week 15
Date/Time: December 15th, 1:00 PM ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Weather: Check local forecasts closer to kickoff
TV: Broadcast Information TBD
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Houston -3 (-105) | Miami +3 (-115)
Money Line: Houston -150 | Miami +125
Over/Under Total: 47.0 (u -110 / o -110)
Game Overview
The Miami Dolphins enter this matchup at 6-7 SU and 5-8 ATS, clinging to playoff hopes but facing a tough road test against the 8-5 Houston Texans, who have been strong at home (4-2 SU). Houston has shown resilience this season, but inconsistent offensive production has led to a 4-8-1 O/U record, signaling their defensive prowess.
Key situational factors include Miami’s injury concerns at both tackle spots, with their starting LT and RT potentially sidelined. Protecting QB Tua Tagovailoa becomes a major challenge against Houston’s formidable pass rush (3.2 sacks per game, 2nd in the NFL). The Dolphins’ offense relies heavily on short passes (3rd in completion percentage at 70.0%), but a disrupted offensive line could limit their rhythm and scoring opportunities.
Houston, meanwhile, ranks 4th in defensive yards allowed (308.5 YPG) and 7th in passing yards allowed (198.8 YPG). They have been consistent at holding opponents below their averages, particularly at home. On the flip side, the Texans' offense has struggled to capitalize, with just 20.3 PPG (23rd).
Key Matchups and Analysis
1. Miami Offensive Line vs. Houston Pass Rush
With Miami potentially missing both tackles, Houston’s defensive line is primed for a big day. The Texans generate pressure at a high clip, ranking 2nd in sacks per game (3.2). Without time, Tagovailoa’s ability to exploit short and intermediate routes becomes limited.
2. Dolphins Run Game vs. Texans Defense
Miami’s run game remains an issue, ranking 25th in rushing yards per game (105.2) and 30th in yards per carry (3.9). Houston allows only 109.7 rushing yards (10th) and can force Miami into becoming one-dimensional.
3. Houston’s Offensive Inconsistency
The Texans’ offense averages just 20.3 points per game but has leaned on their defense to keep games close. They’ve hit the Under in 6 of their last 10 games, a trend worth noting, especially as they face a Dolphins defense that has been solid in scoring defense (22.2 PPG allowed, 12th).
Betting Pick and Rationale
This sets up as a classic defensive grind. Houston’s defense can disrupt Miami’s offense with pressure, particularly with injuries on the Dolphins' line. Both teams have struggled with consistent scoring, and with a total set at 47, there’s value in the Under.
Pick: Under 47
Prediction: Texans 20, Dolphins 17
Houston’s defense takes control, and Miami struggles to score behind a banged-up offensive line. Expect a slower-paced game where points are at a premium.