Game Preview: Dallas Cowboys (2-2) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
Date: October 6, 2024 | Time: 8:20 PM ET | Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Odds
- Moneyline: Cowboys +125, Steelers -150
- Spread: Steelers -2.5
- Total: 44.5 points
Recent Form and Key Stats
Dallas Cowboys
- Record: 2-2 (1-3 ATS)
- Offense: 24.25 PPG
- Defense: 26.00 PPG (-1.75 point differential)
- Road ATS: 1-1 | OU: 3-1
Dallas has been inconsistent this season. While their offense has shown potential, their defense has struggled, allowing nearly 30 points per game over the last three matchups. Despite a narrow 20-15 win over the Giants in Week 4, their offensive output of just 293 yards raises concerns heading into this tough road game against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Record: 3-1 (3-1 ATS)
- Offense: 18.75 PPG
- Defense: 13.25 PPG (+5.50 point differential)
- Home ATS: 1-0 | OU: 1-3
Pittsburgh is thriving behind a strong defense that ranks among the best in the league, allowing just 13.25 points per game. Despite a close 27-24 loss to the Colts, the defense remains consistent. The offense, however, is less reliable, averaging under 19 points per game, relying heavily on the defense to control games.
Head-to-Head Trends
Historically, Dallas has performed well against Pittsburgh, winning 6 of the last 9 meetings. They’ve also won 4 of their last 5 trips to Acrisure Stadium. The total has hit the over in 4 of the last 6 matchups, indicating the potential for points if both teams can find their rhythm.
Offense vs. Defense Breakdown
Cowboys Offense vs. Steelers Defense
Dallas faces a tough challenge through the air against Pittsburgh’s elite pass defense, which has allowed just 175 passing yards per game. Prescott will need to find ways to unlock this secondary, while the Cowboys' ground game, averaging only 75.25 rushing yards per game, also faces a stout Steelers run defense giving up just 86.75 yards per game.
Steelers Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t been high-scoring, but their solid run game (128.5 YPG) may be enough to exploit a Dallas defense that has struggled, allowing 145.75 rushing yards per game. If Pittsburgh can control the clock through the run, they will wear down the Cowboys’ defense and limit Dallas’ offensive opportunities.
Power Stats Comparison
- Yards Per Point (YPP):
- Dallas: 13.64 (offense), 13.66 (defense), differential: -0.02
- Pittsburgh: 16.95 (offense), 19.75 (defense), differential: -2.81
Pittsburgh’s defense is significantly more efficient at limiting opponents' scoring, a major advantage in this matchup.
- Yards Per Rush:
- Dallas: 3.54 (offense), 4.59 (defense)
- Pittsburgh: 3.72 (offense), 3.73 (defense)
Pittsburgh holds a slight edge in the rushing game, both offensively and defensively, which could prove crucial.
Key Matchups
Dallas' Passing Attack vs. Pittsburgh’s Pass Defense
Prescott faces one of the toughest pass defenses in the league. Pittsburgh’s ability to shut down quarterbacks will force the Cowboys' receivers to step up and create opportunities if they hope to score.
Pittsburgh’s Rushing Attack vs. Dallas’ Run Defense
The Steelers will likely lean on their rushing attack, taking advantage of a Cowboys defense that has struggled against the run. If Pittsburgh can control the game with their ground attack, Dallas will struggle to keep up.
Betting Trends
Pittsburgh
- The Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games and consistently cover spreads, especially at home.
- The total has gone under in 4 of their last 6 games due to their elite defense keeping scores low.
Dallas
- The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, struggling to cover spreads recently.
- The total has gone over in 5 of their last 6 games, but they'll need to solve Pittsburgh’s defense to contribute to that.
Final Thoughts
This game will likely be a clash between Dallas’ inconsistent offense and Pittsburgh’s dominant defense. While Dallas has the weapons to compete, their recent struggles combined with Pittsburgh’s strong defense make this a tough matchup. The Cowboys will need Prescott to be at his best against a formidable Steelers secondary. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s offense doesn’t need to be flashy—they can control the game with their rushing attack and let their defense do the heavy lifting.
Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Cowboys 20
Best Bet: Steelers -2.5, Under 44.5
