Dallas Cowboys (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. New York Giants (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Thursday, September 26, 2024, at 8:15PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: NBC
Betting Odds
Point Spread: DAL -5.5/NYG +5.5 (MyBookie)
Money Line: DAL -250/NYG +200
Over/Under Total: 45
The Gman's Take: Why the Over is the Best Bet
If you’re looking for a game that could light up the scoreboard, then you’ve found it. This NFC East matchup is poised to deliver fireworks as both teams are coming into this game with plenty of offensive potential. The Gman is confident that this one will exceed expectations and hit the Over.
Recent Trends and Why They Matter
The Cowboys have been involved in shootouts all season long, going 3-0 to the Over so far. They’re scoring an average of 25.67 points per game but are also giving up 29.67 on the defensive side. Meanwhile, the Giants have struggled offensively, putting up just 15 points per contest, but Dallas’ porous defense could be just the remedy they need to exceed expectations.
In their last 11 meetings, 8 of these games have hit the Over, with the Cowboys averaging an impressive 33.3 points per game against the Giants. The Gman sees history repeating itself in this matchup.
Head-to-Head Domination and Scoring Trends
The Cowboys have dominated the Giants, going 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. More importantly, these games have averaged a combined total of 50.4 points, well above the current Over/Under line. This trend speaks volumes about the potential for another high-scoring game.
Offensive and Defensive Matchups
Dallas boasts the top passing offense in the league, averaging 269.7 yards per game. Dak Prescott is coming off a 379-yard performance against Baltimore and should have no trouble picking apart a Giants defense that allows 186.3 passing yards per game. Look for Prescott to keep airing it out, especially with the Giants ranking 22nd in completion percentage allowed.
The Giants’ offense hasn’t been impressive, but they’ll get opportunities against a Dallas defense that ranks 27th in rush yards allowed per game (131.7). This will give New York a chance to sustain drives and put up enough points to help push this one over.
Yards Per Point Analysis
The Yards Per Point (YPP) metric is telling. Dallas is one of the more efficient scoring teams with a YPP of 13.37 on offense, while their defense gives up points quickly at a 12.56 YPP. The Giants, on the other hand, have a high YPP on offense (19.64), indicating inefficiency, but that number will come down against a forgiving Cowboys defense. This suggests a game that could see points piling up fast, making the Over an attractive play.
Betting Trends and Line Movements
The line movement here tells the story. Dallas has gone Over the total in all three games this season, while New York has stayed Under in all three. However, the smart money is leaning towards the Over, with the total moving from 44.5 up to 45 in many sportsbooks.
The Gman loves following the trends, and all signs point to the Cowboys pushing the pace and dragging the Giants into a high-scoring battle.
Weather and Game Conditions
Weather conditions are expected to be ideal for football, with no significant wind or rain in the forecast. This means both offenses will have the opportunity to execute their game plans without hindrance, further supporting a high-scoring affair.
Gman's Final Prediction
Expect the Cowboys to keep up their offensive momentum, and for the Giants to find enough openings in a Dallas defense that's been anything but stingy. This one feels like it’s going Over the total.
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys 31, New York Giants 21
