Game Details
Washington Commanders (12-5 SU, 12-6-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3 SU, 12-7 ATS)
NFC Championship Game
Date/Time: Sunday, January 26, 2025, 3:00 PM ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
TV: FOX
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Eagles -6.5 / Commanders +6.5
Moneyline: Eagles -295 / Commanders +240
Over/Under Total: 47.5
Philadelphia opens as a 6.5-point home favorite with a total set at 47.5. This sets the stage for an intriguing NFC East battle, with the Commanders surging offensively and the Eagles leaning on their league-best defense.
Game Overview
The Washington Commanders enter this matchup on a tear, winning seven of their last eight games straight up (SU) while covering the spread (ATS) in five of those contests. They’re coming off a 45-31 dismantling of the Detroit Lions, showcasing quarterback Jayden Daniels’ versatility and the team’s relentless no-huddle offense. Washington’s tempo has been their X-factor, leading the NFL in no-huddle usage (61%) while pairing it with an explosive ground game, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, survived a scare last week, holding off the Los Angeles Rams in a 27-20 NFC Divisional win. The Eagles' top-ranked defense allowed 291 passing yards, struggling late against the Rams’ up-tempo attack. This vulnerability is noteworthy as they face a Washington team excelling in similar circumstances.
The Commanders handed the Eagles one of their three losses this season in Week 16, a 36-33 shootout. Washington piled up 255 passing yards in that game, the second-most Philadelphia allowed all year, and scored five touchdowns. The Commanders’ ability to replicate this formula is key to keeping pace with the Eagles.
Key Matchups and Analysis
Washington’s No-Huddle Offense vs. Philadelphia’s Defense
Washington’s up-tempo approach will test an Eagles defense that has shown cracks against hurry-up offenses. The Eagles allowed 291 passing yards to the Rams last week, much of it coming in the no-huddle late in the game. Jayden Daniels (7.3 yards per attempt, 14 TDs, 3 INTs) has thrived when operating quickly, and Washington’s rushing attack, led by Brian Robinson Jr. (5.2 YPC), creates balance.
Philadelphia’s Rushing Attack vs. Washington’s Run Defense
The Eagles boast the league’s second-best rushing offense, averaging 184.3 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. Jalen Hurts and their dynamic offensive line will test a Washington defense ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed (138.9 per game). The Commanders must improve their front-seven performance to keep the game within reach.
Turnovers and Special Teams
Turnovers could play a pivotal role, with both teams ranking in the top 10 in turnover margin. However, Washington’s +0.4 per game edge could give them an advantage if Philadelphia’s sometimes sloppy ball security surfaces under pressure. Additionally, the Eagles’ inconsistency in field goal kicking (77.8%) could create opportunities for Washington in a close game.
Betting Pick and Rationale
This matchup sets up well for a high-scoring game, making the Over 47.5 the best play. Washington’s no-huddle offense and explosive rushing attack have proven they can produce against top defenses, as evidenced by their 36-point outburst in the last meeting with Philadelphia. Additionally, the Eagles' elite rushing attack should exploit Washington’s porous run defense, leading to long drives and points on the board.
While the Eagles’ defense ranks No. 1 in both yards and points allowed, their recent struggles against up-tempo offenses are a red flag. Washington’s combination of Jayden Daniels’ mobility and their no-huddle efficiency (5.4 yards per carry) will create matchup problems. Expect both teams to score early and often, pushing the game over the total.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Commanders 28
Best Bet: Over 47.5