Chicago Bears (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (3-7-1 SU, 4-7 ATS)
Week 13 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, November 28, 2019 at 12:30PM EST
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
TV: Fox
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: CHI -1/DET +1
Over/Under Total: 39.5
The Chicago Bears battle the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving at Ford Field. This NFC North battle features two teams who have faced their share of hard times this season. After a 12-4 season, the Bears find themselves below the .500 mark heading into week 13. To their credit, they were able to beat the Giants on Sunday, 19-14, and look to repeat a win over Detroit from several weeks ago. On Sunday, Detroit lost their fourth game in a row and the 7th in their last 8 with a demoralizing 19-16 loss to the one-win Redskins. On a bad run and without Matthew Stafford, they are now just trying to piece some success together in what is already another lost season for the Lions.
With a combined 7-15 record against the spread, neither team has really delivered this season in a betting sense. Detroit hasn't covered in the last six weeks and Chicago only once in seven weeks, that coming against this Lions team at Soldier Field in week 10 by a 20-13 score. Mitchell Trubisky wasn't very prolific, but accurate with three TD throws. They ran the ball a little and capitalized on numerous Detroit miscues. Detroit was able to stay within a score with a steady pass-rush on defense and some aerial success from Jeff Driskel, who is groping for success trying to fill in for Stafford.
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Now at home, Detroit looks for better and it's really gotten ugly after a 2-0-1 start to the season. The offense is in knots, the defense isn't a lot better, and whatever they had planned for this season just fell flat. Injuries have been a major culprit to be fair and they probably weren't prepared for life without Stafford. But it's not just him, as nearly half of their projected starters are either out or questionable. Their secondary is in tatters, both lines of scrimmage are compromised, and key skill players are out of action. Where do they go from here?
For what it's worth, Detroit did manage some modest offensive success against Chicago in week ten, with Driskel completing a lot of passes. He has decent targets with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, and others. Running back Bo Scarborough has been showing some lively legs the last few weeks, with nearly 100 yards on Sunday. With 56 total points in three games with Driskel behind center, it hasn't been great. Against the Bears and their sometimes highly-dysfunctional offense, however, it's not the worst spot to have an offense that is struggling.
The Detroit defense might have had a chance this season if not for a deteriorated offense leaving them out to dry, along with constant infestations from the injury bug. Not many teams can see their defense shine when missing so many pieces. Their secondary has been hit hard and predictably, they haven't been up-to-snuff. The player departures and injuries have really left them thin in the back. Still, against Washington, they allowed just over 200 yards of total offense. Washington's only touchdown came on a kick-return. Granted, this was against Washington, but it shows this “D” can make things happen at this level—against some of the less-fearsome offenses in the league.
The Bears can still play some defense and they have not ever been embarrassed this season, but the offense has had a stunning lack of success, taking a huge step back in 2019. As a result, the defense has struggled more than last season when they were turning into what looked like a special unit. While not officially out of it, it's hard to find a path to the postseason for the Bears, even if they manage to take it to .500 this week on Thanksgiving.
Trubisky wasn't bad in the first game against Detroit and on Sunday, he was 25-for-41 with 278 yards and a TD pass. But two picks were costly. They can't really run the ball with much effectiveness, though Trubisky can use his wheels. The combo of David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen in the backfield has been underwhelming at best. They have receivers like Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Anthony Miller who can make noise, but it's one of the more impotent aerial attacks in the league. There is simply nothing they do well on this side of the ball.
The defense is what has kept the Bears competitive. It's remarkable in a sense that despite so little support from other areas of the team that in the last five games, this defense has yielded a total of just 83 points. Khalil Mack is still a difference-maker and they're strong in the middle. The secondary can make plays and is still pretty stout. They're always a threat to be extra-stingy against the rush and through the air, while their big-play ability looms over every game. After allowing 13 to Detroit the first time, they have shown they can shine against this offense.
Chicago might have the better defense by a fair margin, but I still don't see this being a spot where the Bears' offense will shine. I see a close game and after losing by just one score at Soldier Field, I see the Lions being competitive in this home Thanksgiving spot. The Lions can't just go on forever not covering spreads. I see this as a spot where they notch the elusive cover. I'm taking Detroit.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Detroit Lions plus one point.Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Bears-Lions Thanksgiving game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
