Arizona Cardinals (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. New York Jets (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS)

NFL Football Week 10
Date/Time: Sunday, November 10, 2024, at 4:25 PM EST
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
TV: FOX

The Arizona Cardinals host the New York Jets in this Week 10 NFL matchup, with Arizona looking to solidify its top spot in the NFC West. The Cardinals have been performing well ATS (6-3), and a win over the Jets, who are struggling on both offense and defense, could give them another cover here. Let’s explore why Arizona has a strong case to cover the -12.5 spread at home.

Arizona Cardinals: Strong ATS Performers

Arizona’s consistency this season has translated well against the spread, with the team covering in 6 of their 9 games. Their offense has been effective, and they’ve demonstrated resilience, especially at home where they are 3-2. Arizona ranks 5th in points scored in the 3rd quarter and has shown the ability to put away weaker opponents. The Cardinals’ defense, although not elite, has been competent enough to handle underperforming offenses, and New York’s offense ranks poorly across multiple categories.

New York Jets: Offensive Struggles Continue

The Jets’ offense has been lackluster, averaging only 19 points per game (25th). They rank near the bottom of the league in rushing yards (30th) and struggle to sustain drives. This one-dimensional offense has limited scoring potential, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been inconsistent, particularly under pressure. Arizona’s defensive line, while not among the top-tier pass rush units, has been effective enough to disrupt weaker offensive lines like New York’s.

Key Reasons to Back Arizona -12.5

• Offensive Firepower: Arizona’s offense has been solid this season, particularly in the second half, averaging 5.3 points in the third quarter (5th overall). Led by a dynamic passing game and a balanced ground attack, the Cardinals should capitalize on a Jets defense that allows 361.4 yards per game (24th).
• Defensive Advantages: Arizona’s defense, while not top-ranked, matches up well against New York’s offense. The Jets rank 30th in rushing yards per game (87.7), and Arizona’s defense allows a manageable 4.5 yards per carry. The Cardinals can likely force the Jets into passing situations where their efficiency plummets.
• Home Field Edge: The Cardinals are 3-2 at home and have consistently covered the spread. The Jets, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, going 1-4 ATS away from home this season. Arizona’s confidence and rhythm at home should give them a solid advantage.
• Red Zone Efficiency: Arizona’s offense is efficient in the red zone, while the Jets have one of the lowest touchdown conversion rates once inside the 20. This disparity could see Arizona pulling away with points on nearly every drive while limiting the Jets to field goals.

Betting Trends

• Against the Spread (ATS): Arizona is 6-3 ATS this season and 3-2 ATS at home, while the Jets are 3-6 ATS overall and 1-4 ATS on the road.
• Over/Under: Both teams have been balanced in O/U results this season, but the trend points toward Arizona’s ability to contain weak offenses, favoring a lower-scoring game dominated by the Cardinals.

Prediction and Betting Recommendation

Recommended Bet: Arizona -12.5. The Cardinals have the offensive firepower and defensive stability to cover this spread against a struggling Jets team. With New York’s limited scoring potential and poor road performance, Arizona is positioned well to secure a double-digit victory at home, covering the spread with a comfortable margin.