Game Date: September 12, 2024, 8:15 PM
Location: Hard Rock Stadium
Matchup: Buffalo Bills (1-0) vs Miami Dolphins (1-0)
Betting Pick: Miami Dolphins -2 or -1.5 points
Lead-in: The Buffalo Bills have won 11 of the last 12 matchups against the Miami Dolphins, but this year, Miami may have a chance to exploit a Buffalo defense that, while talented, is still integrating many new pieces. The Dolphins, with their potent passing attack, may be able to take advantage of the Bills' defense before it fully gels, making Miami a strong pick to cover the spread at home.
Betting Odds Overview
Moneyline: Buffalo +110, Miami -130
Spread: Buffalo +1.5 to +2 (+110), Miami -1.5 to -2 (-130 )
Total (Over/Under): 48.5 to 49 points
Team Insights
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo comes into this matchup having won 11 of their last 12 meetings with the Dolphins, a dominant stretch. The Bills' offense is still firing on all cylinders, putting up 34 points in their Week 1 victory over Arizona. Quarterback Josh Allen threw for 222 yards, while the team added 130 rushing yards on the ground.
However, Buffalo’s defense, while talented, has many new pieces this season and allowed 28 points and 352 total yards in Week 1. Until this defense gels, Miami might be able to exploit gaps, particularly with their strong passing attack.
Miami Dolphins
Miami enters this game after a close 20-17 win over Jacksonville in Week 1. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw for 319 yards, showcasing Miami’s ability to move the ball through the air. Although Miami’s rushing game was less effective (81 rushing yards), their aerial attack has the potential to challenge Buffalo’s new-look secondary.
Miami’s defense played well, allowing only 17 points, but they will face a bigger test this week against Buffalo’s high-powered offense. Still, the Dolphins are playing at home and could capitalize on any defensive lapses by Buffalo.
Key Matchups
Buffalo Offense vs. Miami Defense
Buffalo’s offense will look to build on their Week 1 performance, where they posted 34 points. The Bills have a balanced attack with a solid running game (130 yards in Week 1) and Allen’s arm. Miami’s defense, which allowed only 17 points and 267 passing yards in Week 1, will need to be sharp to contain Buffalo’s firepower.
Miami Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
This is where Miami may have the edge. Buffalo’s defense is still trying to gel after adding several new players. With Tua Tagovailoa throwing for 319 yards in Week 1, Miami’s passing game could take advantage of any breakdowns in Buffalo’s defense, especially if they haven’t fully settled into their roles.
Conclusion and ATS Pick
Buffalo’s dominance in this series can’t be ignored, but Miami could be in a good spot to cover the spread at home. Buffalo’s defense, while talented, is still working through some growing pains, and Miami’s passing attack could exploit that. Expect a close game, with Miami keeping it competitive or potentially pulling off the upset. Bet on Miami -1.5
