Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys Point Spread – Pick

Buffalo Bills (8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS)
Week 13 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, November 28, 2019 at 4:30PM EST
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: CBS

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: BUF +7/DAL -7
Over/Under Total: 45

The Buffalo Bills take on the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving at AT&T Stadium. The Bills are now 8-3, following a 20-3 win over the Broncos on Sunday. For a team that hasn't achieved a lot of success lately, they are finally seeing some good things happen, with Josh Allen commandeering a great run-game with a defense that makes a big impact. They look for a stamp of validation in this high-profile game against a Dallas team that is looking for a positive development after falling to the Patriots on Sunday, 13-9. While still leading the NFC East, a home win against a good team is what the doctor ordered at this point in the Cowboys season.

Obviously with an ATS record nearly as good as their overall record, the Bills have snuck up on some people this season with their form. And why wouldn't they? Josh Allen has been great, but doesn't get a lot of run in the press. The offense is made up of unheralded rookie Devin Singletary and ancient Frank Gore, along with pass-catchers like Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Dawson Knox. The defense has also played a huge role, but with no standout names, they are also sometimes overlooked. Naysayers can also point to the quality of their opposition, with their eight wins coming against the Jets' Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins (twice), Redskins, and Broncos. That's a lot of bad teams and not one that can be called a good team. So, it's a mixed bag, as they are a team that could be better than some suspect, while they also still have something to prove.

DEPOSIT $100 AND GET $50 FREE TO BET ON THE BILLS-COWBOYS THANKSGIVING GAME AT ONE OF THE WEB'S OLDEST SPORTSBOOKS: BOVADA SPORTSBOOK

The Buffalo offense isn't going to knock anyone's socks off. They are more subtle, with an improved offensive line and running game, bolstered by improved play from their second-year quarterback. Efficient through the air, Allen has connected well with Brown who is a real weapon. Allen has used his feet to get in the end zone seven times on top of his 15 TD throws. Some of those runs were super clutch. Singletary is really coming around, Gore is the rock, and Allen adds a dash of his own flair. In their last three wins, they have won by an average of over 17 points. So while not overwhelming on paper, they get a lot out of what they have.

Should the Bills make a run this season, it will be the defensive side of the ball that will have played the biggest part. They are becoming more-balanced and on Sunday, the Broncos run and pass both struggled mightily with a mere three points of scoring. Their secondary is tip-top, with Tre'Davious White making plays, along with Micah Hyde, Levi Wallace, and Jordan Poyer. The middle is strong with Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds and there are monsters up front with Star Lotulelei, Shaw Lawson, and others. Only twice this season has an opponent gone over 20 points of scoring on the Bills. In the last 4 games, they have given up a combined total of only 51 points. Things ramp up a notch this week, but that also applies to the Dallas offense.

Dallas gets their second chance in as many weeks to see their offense thrive against a solid defense. Against the best in the NFL last week in Foxborough, they certainly didn't have many answers. The defense played well, but it wasn't enough. In a critical game, they didn't catch any breaks in getting the Pats on the road. But they played them close, covered the spread, and maybe the picture isn't as bad as it is for most 6-5 NFC teams, Still leading the NFC East, the Cowboys still have a playoff future, but they need to start putting together some wins. And they need the confidence that comes from beating a good team that is going to the playoffs, something they haven't done yet.

Judging an offense based on how they did against the Patriots isn't the best way to evaluate a group, but there were some ugly signs on Sunday. No catches for Amari Cooper, no big runs from Ezekiel Elliott, less than 200 yards and no TDs from Dak Prescott. That's not going to work. Too many times, we see this offense fail to deliver a composite product that their individual parts would suggest. With a sound line, one of the best backs in the business, and an aerial corps that should be able to do damage, the results should be more consistent and they shouldn't have 6 games already this season where they scored 18 or fewer points.

When the offense doesn't deliver and you still manage to hold a home Patriots team to 13 points it speaks pretty well of a Dallas defense that was coming off a rough patch. Brady was held to 17 on 37 completions with less than 200 yards, as the Dallas pass-defense continues to shine with Chibode Awuzie, Byron Jones, Darian Thompson, and Xavier Woods. Again, another sterling performance was squandered with the Dallas offense not doing its share of the heavy lifting. This week against a Buffalo offense that isn't the best, maybe this “D” can make it stick.

This is a big game for Buffalo, as the naysayers are still rampant. A win over a first-place team on the road would answer some of those questions. But even though this game comes against an out-of-conference foe where Dallas has no real axe to grind, this is a big game for them—at home on Thanksgiving with their legitimacy on the line. This is where they show they are either a playoff threat or an otherwise also-ran team that lucked into being in a bad division. I see the Cowboys nicking it in this one.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Dallas Cowboys minus 7 points. Did you know… that you could be wagering on the Buffalo-Dallas game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to BetAnySports Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

SAVE BIG MONEY BY BETTING AT -105 REDUCED ODDS!
Quit wasting your hard earned money! Make the switch from -110 to -105 odds today
You'll be so glad that you did! Click Here!
DOCS

NFL Betting

Reduced Juice – Loot explains how reduced odds football betting works and where you can find this valuable asset.

What is a Point Spread? – Many new to the game struggle to understand why one side has a (+) while the other has a (-) in front of a team. We explain what the spread is and how it works.

Football Bets – All the different types of wagers that you can make when betting on football games.

What Professional Handicappers Do – Learn the tricks of the trade and increase your odds of beating the books!

Key Numbers – The article that bookies don’t want you to read!

NFL Betting Quiz – Test your football wagering prowess with Loot’s 10 question quiz!

Super Bowl 52 Predictions – Loot gives his preseason picks for which teams are most likely to win “the big game” along with middle of the road and a longshot that is sure to surprise you!

NFL Season Wins Predictions – Loot breaks down every team and gives his opinion on how they’ll do vs. the number!

NFL Bye Weeks – The first set start in Week 5 and the final byes take place in Week 11.

NFL Coaching Changes – We seem to be in an era where football coaches become disposable in an instant if they don’t win. Check out who went where right here!

Misc.

Famous Football Players – Biographies of the best and greatest NFL football players of all-time.

Greatest NFL Players of All Time – A list of all time greats at each position. Each position has it’s own dedicated article!

Best Quarterbacks of All Time – Joe Montana heads our list of top 10 QB’s, however, Tom Brady is a sure bet to give him a run for his money by the time his career is said and done.

Best Running Backs of All Time – We list the top 10 greatest ball carriers of all-time. The order may be debatable, as Jim Brown, Barry Sanders and Walter Payton all brought something special to the gridiron.

Football Lingo – One must be very familiar with all of the terms, slang and jargon associated with this game to win at football betting. Find a slew of pigskin terminology right here!

Football Quotes – Funny and memorable sayings from around the National Football League including comments made by Vince Lombardi and John Madden.