Game Details
Buffalo Bills (13-4 SU, 12-7 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2 SU, 8-10 ATS)
AFC Championship Game
Date/Time: Sunday, January 26, 2025, 6:30 PM ET
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV: CBS
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Chiefs -2.0 / Bills +2.0
Moneyline: Chiefs -130 / Bills +110
Over/Under Total: 48.5
Kansas City is a narrow 2-point favorite at home, with the total set at 48.5. This game is a rematch of Buffalo’s 30-21 regular-season win, where Buffalo’s balanced offense and defensive discipline helped control the game.
Game Overview
The Buffalo Bills come into the AFC Championship with momentum after a hard-fought 27-25 Divisional Round win over Baltimore. Josh Allen’s ability to stretch defenses with both his arm and legs (577 rushing yards this season) complements James Cook’s breakout year (1,129 rushing yards). In their earlier meeting this season, Buffalo handled Kansas City 30-21 despite being held to just 3.4 yards per carry. Allen made the difference in that game, completing 27 of 40 passes for 262 yards.
Kansas City advanced to the AFC Championship with a convincing 23-10 victory over Houston. The Chiefs’ top-ranked defense continued to dominate, holding Houston to 10 points and forcing two turnovers. Kansas City thrives at home, sporting a 9-0 record at Arrowhead this season. However, they struggled against Buffalo in their earlier matchup, trailing or tied for all but 2:51 of the game.
Buffalo will be without starting safety Taylor Rapp and likely cornerback Christian Benford, which leaves their secondary thin against Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City’s offense has been less explosive than in years past, averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt (22nd in the NFL), but Mahomes has excelled in protecting the football, throwing only 7 interceptions this season.
Key Matchups and Analysis
Buffalo’s Rushing Attack vs. Kansas City’s Run Defense
James Cook has provided Buffalo with a steady ground game, and Josh Allen remains a threat to scramble in key moments. Kansas City limited Buffalo to 104 rushing yards in their earlier meeting, but with rookie WR Keon Coleman and TE Dalton Kincaid back in the lineup, the Bills have more weapons to spread the Chiefs’ defense thin.
Kansas City’s Offense vs. Buffalo’s Secondary
Buffalo’s secondary injuries will be tested by Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs offense that leans on short, efficient passing. Without Taylor Rapp and likely Christian Benford, the Bills could struggle to contain Travis Kelce in the red zone. However, Buffalo’s pass rush (league-leading 9% sack rate) could disrupt Mahomes behind a Chiefs offensive line that ranks 17th in sack percentage allowed.
Turnovers and Tempo
Buffalo leads the league in turnover margin (+1.4 per game) thanks to elite ball security, averaging just 0.4 giveaways per game. Kansas City, by contrast, ranks 10th in turnover margin and has been prone to fumbles at inopportune moments. If Buffalo can win the turnover battle, they’ll have a clear edge in a close game.
Betting Pick and Rationale
The Bills are the value play here at +2.0 or on the moneyline (+110). They’ve already beaten Kansas City this season, and the return of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid gives Josh Allen more options in the passing game. Buffalo’s ability to control the tempo and limit turnovers makes them a live underdog in this spot.
The Over 48.5 is also worth consideration, given Buffalo’s secondary injuries and Kansas City’s offensive potential at home. Both offenses are capable of trading scores in a high-stakes game.
Prediction: Bills 31, Chiefs 27
Best Bet: Bills +2.0 (or moneyline at +110)