Cincinnati Bengals (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)

NFL Football Week 10
Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, November 7, 2024, at 8:15 PM EST
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
TV: Prime Video

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to M&T Bank Stadium for a Thursday Night Football showdown with the Baltimore Ravens. This high-stakes AFC North clash has playoff implications, as the Bengals aim to reach .500 and bolster their spot in the division. Both teams enter the game with strong offensive momentum: Cincinnati is fresh off a dominant 41-24 victory over the Raiders, and Baltimore scored big in their 41-10 win against the Broncos. Given the recent scoring trends, this matchup leans towards a high total, making the over on 53 points a compelling choice.

Current Form

Both teams are rallying from early-season struggles. The Ravens have bounced back from an 0-2 start to win six of their last seven, including last week's comprehensive victory over Denver. This win helped restore confidence after a surprising loss to the Browns, and it showcased Lamar Jackson’s offensive potential and the Ravens' defense regaining some form. On Cincinnati's side, a tough start saw them open at 1-4, but they’ve clawed back with a 4-5 record. Joe Burrow threw for five touchdowns last week, a display that has fueled hopes of a resurgent Bengals offense. While both teams are improving, they’ll need more defensive consistency to keep pace in a game likely decided by high scores.

The First Matchup

These teams previously met in Cincinnati, delivering a high-scoring thriller that saw Baltimore narrowly edge out a 41-38 win in overtime. Burrow threw for five touchdowns, while Jackson contributed four of his own, with both quarterbacks leading explosive aerial offenses. The Bengals’ duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins had standout performances, while both defenses struggled to find their footing. Baltimore’s defense may have seen some improvements recently, but that first matchup underlines the potential for another high-scoring affair. The Ravens’ defense, ranked last in passing yards allowed, will face a tough test if Burrow finds his rhythm once again.

Expectations for Thursday

This matchup carries similar high-scoring potential, especially if key offensive players remain healthy. Cincinnati would benefit from a fully fit Tee Higgins, as he adds depth and versatility to their receiving corps. However, even if he isn’t 100%, the Bengals have ample firepower in the passing game to challenge Baltimore’s struggling secondary. On Baltimore’s side, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and emerging talents like Zay Flowers can create multiple scoring threats, putting pressure on a Bengals defense that’s proven vulnerable in high-paced games. Short-week turnarounds can sometimes affect defenses more than offenses, giving an edge to a shootout scenario.

Defensive Struggles and Scoring Trends

Both teams’ defenses have had issues containing potent offenses, which could lead to a repeat of the Week 5 shootout. Baltimore’s fourth-quarter defense ranks at the bottom of the league, allowing an average of 10.3 points, while Cincinnati’s defense has conceded 61 points in their last two games. Despite a strong showing against the Broncos, Baltimore’s defense has allowed high scores in other recent games, suggesting they could struggle to contain a Bengals offense operating at full strength.

Betting Trends

• Against the Spread (ATS): Cincinnati is 5-4 ATS this season, with a strong 3-1 ATS record on the road. Baltimore is 5-3-1 ATS and has performed well at home.
• Over/Under: Cincinnati games have hit the over in 6 of their last 9, while Baltimore’s games have gone over in 8 of 9 matchups. The trend supports a high-scoring game here.

Prediction and Betting Recommendation

Recommended Bet: Over 53 points. Both offenses have shown their ability to put up big numbers, and with Baltimore’s secondary still showing vulnerabilities, the Bengals’ potent passing game is likely to take advantage. Short-week dynamics, defensive weaknesses, and recent scoring patterns point toward a high-scoring game, making the over an appealing play in this AFC North showdown.

Pick: Take the Over 53