Los Angeles Rams (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday, September 29, 2024, at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
TV: FOX
Betting Odds
Point Spread: LAR +2.5 / CHI -2.5 (Bet365)
Money Line: LAR +135 / CHI -160
Over/Under Total: 40.5
Why the Under 40.5 Is the Smart Bet for Bears vs. Rams in NFL Week 4
The NFL Week 4 matchup between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams is expected to be a low-scoring affair. With key injuries, windy conditions, and both teams struggling offensively, all signs point to the Under 40.5 being the top betting play. Here's a comprehensive breakdown of why you should consider this bet.
1. Both Teams’ Offensive Struggles
The Bears have struggled to establish their running game, averaging only 72.67 rushing yards per game, and face an equally tough challenge against the Rams’ defense. On the other side, the Rams’ offense has been hit hard by injuries and is averaging just 19 points per game. To make matters worse, star wide receiver Cooper Kupp is out again this week, and they're also missing Puka Nacua. This leaves the Rams with limited options in the passing game, forcing them to rely on a running attack that’s as inefficient as Chicago's, with just 3.4 yards per carry (30th in the league).
2. Weather Conditions Will Be a Factor
The weather forecast predicts winds of 19.5 MPH at Soldier Field, which will likely impact the passing game for both teams. These windy conditions make it difficult to throw deep or maintain accuracy, favoring a ground-and-pound style game with shorter, safer passes. Expect fewer explosive plays, which typically lead to lower-scoring games.
3. Strong Defenses and Low Offensive Efficiency
Chicago’s defense has been solid, allowing just 19 points per game and ranking 10th in the league. The Bears also rank 5th in opponent completion percentage (59.1%) and have allowed only 165 passing yards per game (7th in the league). On the other side, the Rams’ defense should be able to contain Chicago's struggling offense, especially given the Bears' inefficiency in the run game.
Both teams’ offenses have not been efficient: the Rams average just 3.4 yards per rush, and the Bears are at 3.03 yards per rush. These inefficiencies in the run game suggest that sustained drives will be difficult, leading to fewer scoring opportunities.
4. Head-to-Head Matchup History Supports the Under
The total has gone Under in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams at Soldier Field. Additionally, the Bears have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games overall, while the Rams have seen the total go Under in 4 of their last 6 road games. These trends indicate that both teams typically engage in lower-scoring games when they face off.
5. Lack of Red Zone Efficiency and Missing Weapons
The Rams' offense, already struggling, will be further hampered by the absence of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Without these key targets, expect the Rams to have difficulty moving the ball and finishing drives in the red zone. The Bears haven't been much better, averaging only 17.67 points per game and struggling to establish a consistent offensive rhythm.
6. Turnover Battle and Clock Management
One positive for the Rams is their turnover differential of -0.33, meaning they've turned the ball over less frequently than their opponents this season. This indicates a disciplined approach that prevents giving away easy scoring opportunities. The Bears, meanwhile, have a turnover differential of 0, showing that they are neither gaining nor losing the ball more frequently than their opponents. Despite this advantage for the Rams, the disciplined play on both sides is likely to result in fewer big plays and a slower-paced game overall.
Conclusion
The combination of the Bears’ struggles to run the ball, the Rams being without their top receiving threats, expected windy conditions, strong defensive performances, and both teams’ tendencies to play slower-paced games all point towards this game staying Under the total of 40.5. It’s unlikely that either team will be able to generate enough consistent offense to push this game into a high-scoring affair.
Projected Score: Chicago Bears 17 – Los Angeles Rams 13, totaling 30 points and comfortably staying Under the 40.5.
