Buffalo Bills (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday, September 29, 2024, at 8:20 PM ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
TV: NBC
Betting Odds
Point Spread: BUF +2.5 / BAL -2.5 (Bet365)
Money Line: BUF +120 / BAL -145
Over/Under Total: 46.5
Why the Over 46.5 Is the Smart Bet for NFL Week 4
The matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills is set up to be a high-scoring affair, making the Over 46.5 a strong play. Let’s break down why this game is likely to see plenty of points on the board.
1. Buffalo’s Efficient Offense Against Baltimore’s Soft Pass Defense
The Bills have been one of the most efficient offenses in the league, boasting an outstanding yards-per-point average of 8.81. Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense have been clicking on all cylinders, averaging 37.3 points per game. They face a Ravens pass defense that ranks 32nd in the league, allowing 291.7 passing yards per game and 7.5 yards per pass attempt. This soft secondary has been vulnerable to big plays, and Allen’s ability to exploit defenses should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for Buffalo.
2. Baltimore’s Ground Game Poised to Take Advantage of Key Buffalo Injuries
The Ravens have one of the most potent rushing attacks in the league, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. With the injury to Bills’ MLB Terrel Bernard, who was already filling in for starting MLB Matt Milano, Baltimore should find plenty of success running the ball. This opens up opportunities for Lamar Jackson to exploit Buffalo’s weakened middle defense, allowing the Ravens to sustain long drives and put points on the board.
Additionally, the absence of starting nickelback Taron Johnson could leave the Bills' defense even more susceptible to Baltimore's play-action passing game, further increasing the likelihood of big plays.
3. Buffalo’s Offensive Efficiency & Red Zone Scoring
Buffalo has been extremely efficient in converting their drives into points, averaging 6.1 yards per play and scoring on 76.92% of their red-zone trips. With Baltimore struggling to contain offenses, allowing an average of 26.0 points per game, the Bills should have no trouble reaching the end zone multiple times. Given Buffalo's offensive momentum and ability to capitalize in the red zone, the points will pile up quickly.
4. Baltimore’s Recent Offensive Success
The Ravens have averaged 23.7 points per game and have shown they can move the ball effectively, averaging 430.3 yards per game and 6.6 yards per play. With Lamar Jackson’s ability to both run and pass, Baltimore will be able to attack Buffalo’s defense, especially with the injuries to key defensive players. Expect the Ravens to put up points and keep pace with the high-powered Bills offense.
5. Game Pace and Offensive Tempo
Both teams run a high number of plays per game, with Buffalo averaging 54.3 plays and Baltimore averaging 65.7. This tempo and pace indicate that there will be plenty of opportunities for both offenses to generate scoring drives, further supporting the Over.
6. Key Trends Supporting the Over
Buffalo has gone Over the total in two out of their three games this season, while Baltimore has hit the Over in all three games. With both teams displaying a strong ability to score and the defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, this game is set up perfectly for a high-scoring outcome.
Conclusion
The combination of Buffalo's efficient offense, Baltimore’s strong ground game against a weakened Bills defense, and key injuries point toward a high-scoring game. Both teams have shown they can move the ball effectively, and the Ravens’ soft pass defense will allow Josh Allen and the Bills to capitalize on big plays. All signs point to this game going Over the 46.5 total.
Projected Score: Buffalo Bills 31 – Baltimore Ravens 27, comfortably surpassing the Over 46.5.
