Minnesota Timberwolves (54-35 SU, 44-45 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (54-38 SU, 46-44-2 ATS)
NBA Playoffs – Western Conference
Date/Time: May 10, 2025 – 8:30 PM ET
Where: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
TV: ESPN / NBA League Pass
Minnesota dominated Game 2 with a 117-93 rout, shooting over 50% from the field and knocking down 16 threes. They're 4-1 SU in their last five and 13-3 SU over their last 16 overall. The Wolves have also covered four of their last five and look like a team peaking at the right time. On the flip side, Golden State is dealing with life without Steph Curry, and the lack of offensive firepower showed in Game 2, where they scored just 93 points and went 9-of-32 from deep.
ATS history slightly favors Golden State at home in this matchup (13-4 SU in their last 17 at Chase vs MIN), but the current form swings things the other way. Minnesota has a +5.15 scoring differential and is allowing just 101.5 PPG over their last 10. Their defense is swarming, and the Wolves have now held opponents under 100 in three of their last five games.
This comes down to defense and efficiency. Minnesota holds a solid shooting edge (46.6% FG vs 44.9%) and a better defensive field goal clip (45.8% vs 46.4%). Their recent dominance on the glass and perimeter (16 threes in Game 5) shows Golden State is struggling to keep up physically and schematically.
Golden State's assist-to-turnover ratio (2.19) is higher, but a lot of that is inflated from earlier in the year with Curry at the helm. Without him, their half-court creation drops off dramatically. Brandon Podziemski and Buddy Hield can't consistently create off the bounce, and the bench has been nearly invisible this series.
The pace has slowed in this series (201.5 O/U lines are sharp), and Minnesota's ability to control tempo is key. They've hit the UNDER in six of their last seven on the road, and their defense is performing at a playoff-grade level.
