Oklahoma City Thunder (73-17 SU, 58-31-1 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (56-36 SU, 43-47-2 ATS)
NBA Playoffs – Western Conference Semifinals, Game 4
Date/Time: May 11, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
TV: ABC
Point Spread: Oklahoma City -6.5 / Denver +6.5
Money Line: Oklahoma City -260 / Denver +224
Over/Under Total: 228
Game Overview
The Thunder have dominated the regular season and continue to look like the most balanced team in the playoffs. Despite a flat Game 1 showing following a layoff, OKC bounced back with a 43-point demolition in Game 2 and now looks to take control of the series. They’re 16-2 SU in their last 18 road games and an impressive 11-4 ATS in their last 15 on the road.
Denver is tough at home (30-16 SU) and responded in Game 3 with a gritty OT win. They’re 5-1 SU in their last 6 at Ball Arena, but the ATS numbers tell a different story — just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 at home, and 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings with OKC in Denver.
Key Matchups & Analysis
This matchup hinges on shooting and tempo. OKC’s offense averages 120.2 PPG (4th in NBA) and ranks 7th in FG%. In contrast, Denver allows 116.4 PPG (25th) and has struggled to contain perimeter scoring. OKC averages 14.3 made threes per game (6th), while Denver’s 3-point defense ranks just 22nd.
Turnovers could also be a key swing stat: the Thunder lead the league in fewest TOs (11.6 per game), while Denver sits bottom-5 in forcing them. If OKC cleans up their shooting from Game 3 (38.5% FG), they’ll be in position to not only win but cover comfortably.
From a totals perspective, the Over is 4-2 in the last six meetings and 5 of Denver’s last 6 games overall have gone Over. The Thunder have hit 120+ in 3 of the last 4 and have scored 123.7 PPG over their last 10. With both teams shooting 35+ 3s per game and capable free-throw shooting, this total has value.