Bash sees a total sitting 10 points too low for a Western Conference finals matchup featuring two teams that both posted offensive ratings above 117, play at a pace around 100 possessions, and just combined for 235 points in Game 2.
Thunder at Spurs: The Line and the Edge
The Western Conference finals shifts to San Antonio on Friday night with the series tied 1-1, and the Spurs are laying 2 points at home with a total sitting at 218. That number feels light given what we've seen through two games and the pace both teams have played all season. Oklahoma City just dropped 122 in Game 2 behind a 30-point performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the Thunder's bench outscored San Antonio's reserves 57-25. Victor Wembanyama put up 21 points, 17 boards, and 4 blocks for the Spurs, but it wasn't enough to slow down Oklahoma City's depth.
The projection has this one landing around 228 combined points, nearly 10 points higher than the posted total. That gap is rooted in the offensive firepower both teams bring and the up-tempo style they've played all year. San Antonio went 62-20 with a 118.7 offensive rating during the regular season, while Oklahoma City posted a 117.6 mark on their way to a 64-18 record. Both teams play at a pace right around 100 possessions per game, and the idea that this one stays under 218 in a playoff environment feels like the market is overvaluing defensive tightening. Injury questions hang over both rosters — Jalen Williams is questionable for the Thunder with a hamstring issue, while the Spurs are dealing with uncertainty around De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper — but that actually helps the over case by creating more transition opportunities and thinner rotations.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: Friday, May 22, 2026 | 7:30 PM ET
Location: San Antonio
TV: NBC, Peacock
Current Lines (Bovada):
- Spread: San Antonio Spurs -2.0 (-115) | Oklahoma City Thunder +2.0 (-105)
- Total: Over 218.0 (-110) | Under 218.0 (-110)
- Moneyline: San Antonio Spurs -135 | Oklahoma City Thunder +115
The Matchup: What Decides This Game
This one comes down to pace and execution in transition. Both teams want to play fast, and both have the offensive talent to push the tempo without sacrificing efficiency. Oklahoma City's 57-25 bench scoring edge in Game 2 wasn't a fluke — it was about having multiple guys who can step in and produce. Alex Caruso dropped 17 off the bench, and role players like Jared McCain and Cason Wallace added 12 apiece. That depth advantage travels, and if Fox and Harper sit again for San Antonio, the Spurs' rotation gets even thinner.
The offensive matchup projects to favor both teams scoring. San Antonio's offense against Oklahoma City's defense shows a 12.2-point advantage per 100 possessions, while the Thunder's offense against the Spurs' defense projects to a 7.2-point edge. The rebounding tilts slightly toward San Antonio with a 3.8-percentage-point advantage in offensive rebounding rate, which could create extra possessions. But the key number here is the expected pace — 100.5 possessions in a game featuring two teams built to score. Game 2 hit 235 combined points, and while that might be the high end, the idea that this one grinds into the 105-110 range doesn't match what either team wants to do.
Bash's Best Bet
I'm on the over 218. The market has this total sitting too low for the pace and offensive firepower these teams bring, and the projection confirms it with an expected total around 228. We're looking at 100-plus possessions in a game featuring two teams that both posted offensive ratings above 117 during the regular season. The injury situation actually helps the over — if Fox and Harper sit for San Antonio, it creates more transition opportunities for Oklahoma City's deep bench. If Jalen Williams is limited for the Thunder, we've already seen their reserves can score.
The risk is that the playoff environment tightens things up or one team blows it open and the game turns into a free-throw parade late. But I'll take my chances with the pace and the offensive efficiency both teams bring. Give me the over 218, and I'd play it up to 220.
BASH'S BEST BET: Over 218 for 2 units.