Game 1 of this first-round series kicks off in Boston, where the top-heavy Celtics host an Orlando team that’s scrappy, but offensively challenged. Let’s break down the betting angles, with a sharp eye on the total.
Game Overview
The Celtics enter the postseason after a dominant 61-21 campaign and are a popular pick to come out of the East. Orlando, sitting in the 7th seed after a 42-41 season, brings hustle and length—but ranks near the bottom in most offensive categories.
Boston is just 38-43-1 ATS this season, showing that oddsmakers often inflate their lines. Meanwhile, Orlando has been profitable against the spread, finishing 41-41-1 ATS, and they’ve covered in 7 of the last 10 head-to-head matchups with Boston.
Key Matchups and Analysis
Boston's defense is elite: #2 in opponent FG%, #3 in 3PT defense, and they’re allowing just 107.2 PPG (3rd). Orlando, on the other hand, ranks dead last in 3PT% (31.8%) and bottom-three in FG% and points per game. This could lead to long stretches of scoring droughts for the Magic.
On the flip side, Boston doesn’t necessarily push pace or rack up flashy totals—they score efficiently, but with methodical tempo. They’ve also hit the Under in 7 of their last 10 meetings with Orlando.
One sharp indicator here is line movement: the total opened at 206.5 and has ticked down to 205.5, despite 60% of bets landing on the Over. That’s reverse line movement—often a sign of sharp action on the Under.
