Perhaps the most intriguing NBA first-round playoff match-up involves the Lakers and Timberwolves, who tip-off their best of seven series Saturday night in Los Angeles.
The Lakers are led by a 40-year-old LeBron James and mid-season trade acquisition Luke Doncic, although the results with both those guys on the floor at the same time have not been super great. Meanwhile, Minnesota got one of its key players back from injury in March and finished very well.
Who do we like here for our free NBA betting picks?
NBA Betting Odds
The NBA playoffs betting lines opened Los Angeles at -4 for Saturday night, with an over/under of right around 216. Both numbers were holding steady in early betting action.
The Lakers are also favored at -205 to win this series, with Minnesota catching +175.
Timberwolves-Lakers Game 1 Betting Preview
Minnesota played 49-33 this season, 32-29 through the first three-quarters, then 17-4 from the quarter pole. That also included an 8-1 finish down the stretch, with wins over playoff qualifiers Detroit, Denver, and Memphis.
Meanwhile Los Angeles played 50-32 this season; 31-19 before Doncic joined the team on the floor, 19-13 afterwards. But the Lakers only finished 7-7 down the stretch, with wins over teams like Houston (2), Indiana, Memphis and Oklahoma City but also losses to Chicago (2) and Portland.
These teams split four meetings during the regular season, each winning and covering twice on their home floors. Minnesota beat LA two out of three games before Doncic arrived while the Lakers won the one game he played against the Timberwolves back in late February 111-102. However, F Julius Randle missed that game for Minnesota with an adductor strain, and G Anthony Edwards was ejected midway through the third quarter.
Also, all four Timberwolves-Lakers games this season played Under on the totals, averaging 200 total points against an average O/U line of 221.
By the Numbers
Minnesota shot 47 percent from the floor this season, 38 percent from 3-point land, and 79 percent from the free-throw line.
Los Angeles shot 48/37/79 percent across the boards.
Both teams held opponents to 46 percent FG shooting.
Minnesota out-rebounded opponents by a per-game margin of 44-43.
Los Angeles got out-rebounded 43-42.
Finally, Minnesota owns a per-game assist-turnover ratio of 26-15, Los Angeles 26-14.
So, statistically speaking, these teams are very close.
NBA Betting Trends
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.
Totals Report
The unders are 5-1 over Minnesota's last six games.
The overs are 4-3 over LA's last seven games.
Prop Board
Minnesota's Randle, who averaged 30.5 points/rebounds/assists this season, is catching +105 to play over 30.5 p/r/a Saturday night.
