Game Overview
The spread has ballooned from -4.5 to -5.5 despite over 60% of tickets on Houston, flashing classic reverse line movement — a clear sign that sharp money is backing Golden State. While public bettors are chasing recency bias after Houston’s 131-116 Game 5 win, professionals are looking deeper.
Golden State has covered just 44.2% of home games this season (19-24-1 ATS), while Houston is 23-20 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS in this series. The Rockets’ edge on the boards and Golden State’s inconsistent perimeter shooting keep this spread in play, but the total might be the smarter angle.
Key Matchups and Analysis
- Rebounding Battle: Houston leads the league with a 31.8% offensive rebound rate and grabs 48.3 boards per game. Golden State’s 27.2% OREB rate and 44.9 RPG trail significantly. In games where Sengun and Thompson combine for 20+ rebounds, the Rockets are 3-0 SU/ATS this series.
- Perimeter Efficiency: Golden State’s three-point rate is high (47.0%), but their accuracy has dipped (Curry 32.7% last 3 games). Houston’s defense has held them to 10.4 made threes per game this series vs. a season average of 15.4.
- Defensive Edge: Rockets rank 6th in points allowed (109.4 PPG), Warriors rank 8th (110.2 PPG). Both squads feature top-10 defensive efficiency, and combined they've hit the Under in 7 of their last 10 meetings.
- Efficiency Stats: Nearly identical offensive efficiency (HOU 1.112, GS 1.111), but Houston has the edge on the glass and turns the ball over less (11.8% vs. 12.2%). Golden State generates more assists (0.71 A/FGM vs. HOU’s 0.548), showing more ball movement but also more reliance on rhythm shooting.
